Omaha1 wrote:Pretty wild times. Is there a chance for the Big 12 to survive by adding some AAC schools or will the CFP simply treat that league the way they have the Group of 5 ?
With the proposed expanded CFP likely to take effect, there really will be no P5/G5 designation. The top six conference champions will each make the playoff, which very well could still be the Big 12 as one of them. What could blow everything up is if the Big 12 decides to go beyond ten teams, and return to a 12-team conference. BYU, for several reasons, will likely be considered for an expansion invitation, but with the perceived drop in reputation (especially against the PAC, which Utah remains in), I don't see BYU going to the B12. Boise State, given its past success in football, will be under consideration, as well Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, Memphis, SMU and USF. Beyond that, I don't think there's really much else to seriously consider. Cincinnati should be the first call for #9; they have a very strong athletic budget, have a strong football and basketball program and can act as a bridge/travel partner for West Virginia. Houston, IMO, is not as a lock for #10 as some believe; they, for various reasons, do not get fans to football games, rarely getting over 30k. Houston is a lost market for the Big 12, but Houston barely penetrates it. They would be a strong basketball addition, which Kansas may support. Memphis has FedEx backing, a growing football program and a strong men's basketball program; but their academics are atrocious, and that will likely turn off Kansas/Iowa State/TCU/Baylor. UCF, while not a strong men's basketball program, does have a top-25 football program, with tremendous fan support and access into Florida. USF, which could be UCF, just isn't there yet, and it might never be.
If I were advising the Big 12, I would have them go with Cincinnati and UCF for #9 and #10 in the interim, with the possibility to move to twelve with Houston and Memphis down the road.
If I'm Aresco/AAC, I'm shaking in my boots. Just when you think you get an easy access spot into the CFP, you are looking at being raided of (at least) your top two programs. If the Big 12 leaves the MWC alone (Boise/SDSU), it is very possible the MWC is left as strong (or even stronger) than the AAC.
For basketball, this is very good news for the Big East. It even more so separates the power conferences from the non-power conferences, and the Big 12 - even though it will remain a power league with Kansas - losses two very strong programs in Texas and Oklahoma. Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State are very strong programs to keep the league strong; but it definitely loses starpower in Texas/Oklahoma.