Big East Conference Expansion Ideas and Discussion

[lolhoya]

I see this comment a lot, but who is the Big East waiting for? Where is the hidden school in a major market and great fan base that's going to pop up out of nowhere? Who has a better TV market and institutional profile than SLU that isn't geographically incompatible (i.e. Gonzaga) even in the BEST case scenario for such hidden school? It would be one thing is we have a long list of non-FBS private schools in large Eastern/Midwestern markets with even just passable on-the-court histories to begin with to evaluate, but there isn't. Who else is there even on paper just as institutions and putting aside any on-the-court metrics? Davidson? Duquesne? BU? Holy Cross? How likely are any of the 4 that I just listed going to be better options than SLU or Dayton in 2 years or, more importantly, develop anywhere near the fan bases?

Two main reasons to wait:
a) see how the candidate schools continue to perform (e.g. will SLU still be decent without that class?)
b) see how realignment continues overall... although super unlikely, maybe a football school decides to park basketball in the BE

I personally think you and others are putting way to much stock into off the court issues. I care about what happens on the court. That's how you grow a conference that the average fan cares about. There are countless schools in big markets that nobody cares about, and lots of schools in tiny markets that people do care about. Market size is a nice benefit, but winning is far more important. And I'm pretty sure VCU and Dayton both draw more eyeballs despite being in smaller markets. How much does market size matter to TV execs if people from that market don't actually watch? I'm not an expert on TV economics, so I'm honestly not sure. Maybe it matters more than I realize.

I don't give a shit about "institutional profile", though I know others here do.

Large fan base? Dayton and VCU are far superior to SLU there.

It seems to be a minority opinion around here, but I am most concerned about on-court success. Everything else is secondary to me. And if you look at on-court success, VCU is in a different class than Dayton/SLU. And I believe most metrics would put Dayton above SLU as well. That's why SLU scares me.

I personally like VCU way more than the other candidates and SLU/Dayton are close for second. Again, I know this is a minority view, but if we're going only by on-court success, VCU is far and away the best option. I'll see if I can throw together some numbers in a few minutes.

[lolhoya]

Here are the median and average KenPom ranks for the four candidate schools. This goes back 12 years, as that's how long KenPom has been around. I'm too lazy to do RPI/Sagarin as well, but the results would be very similar anyway.

VCU
Median: 52
Average: 62

Dayton
Median: 68
Average: 76

SLU
Median: 105
Average: 94

Richmond
Median: 108
Average: 121

After looking at this, I'm firmly in favor of VCU and Dayton. SLU just doesn't have the track record. If they can keep it up for a few more years, I would change my mind (another reason to wait a couple years).

[Jet915]

I see this comment a lot, but who is the Big East waiting for? Where is the hidden school in a major market and great fan base that's going to pop up out of nowhere? Who has a better TV market and institutional profile than SLU that isn't geographically incompatible (i.e. Gonzaga) even in the BEST case scenario for such hidden school? It would be one thing is we have a long list of non-FBS private schools in large Eastern/Midwestern markets with even just passable on-the-court histories to begin with to evaluate, but there isn't. Who else is there even on paper just as institutions and putting aside any on-the-court metrics? Davidson? Duquesne? BU? Holy Cross? How likely are any of the 4 that I just listed going to be better options than SLU or Dayton in 2 years or, more importantly, develop anywhere near the fan bases?

Two main reasons to wait:
a) see how the candidate schools continue to perform (e.g. will SLU still be decent without that class?)
b) see how realignment continues overall... although super unlikely, maybe a football school decides to park basketball in the BE

I personally think you and others are putting way to much stock into off the court issues. I care about what happens on the court. That's how you grow a conference that the average fan cares about. There are countless schools in big markets that nobody cares about, and lots of schools in tiny markets that people do care about. Market size is a nice benefit, but winning is far more important. And I'm pretty sure VCU and Dayton both draw more eyeballs despite being in smaller markets. How much does market size matter to TV execs if people from that market don't actually watch? I'm not an expert on TV economics, so I'm honestly not sure. Maybe it matters more than I realize.

I don't give a shit about "institutional profile", though I know others here do.

Large fan base? Dayton and VCU are far superior to SLU there.

It seems to be a minority opinion around here, but I am most concerned about on-court success. Everything else is secondary to me. And if you look at on-court success, VCU is in a different class than Dayton/SLU. And I believe most metrics would put Dayton above SLU as well. That's why SLU scares me.

I personally like VCU way more than the other candidates and SLU/Dayton are close for second. Again, I know this is a minority view, but if we're going only by on-court success, VCU is far and away the best option. I'll see if I can throw together some numbers in a few minutes.

VCU has had the most on-court success hands down. I know they have been successful prior to Shaka but truthfully, if he left the day after VCU was accepted into the Big East, would you think differently about them?? Brad Stevens did exactly that but atleast Butler is an "institutional fit" that plays in a major hoops market in a historic arena. VCU is none of that. Taking a team because of their coach is stupid.

[lolhoya]

VCU has had the most on-court success hands down. I know they have been successful prior to Shaka but truthfully, if he left the day after VCU was accepted into the Big East, would you think differently about them?? Brad Stevens did exactly that but atleast Butler is an "institutional fit" that plays in a major hoops market in a historic arena. VCU is none of that. Taking a team because of their coach is stupid.

Here's VCU if you take away the Shaka Smart years:
Median: 73
Average: 82

Still better than SLU and Richmond, and basically on par with Dayton.

[Jet915]

VCU has had the most on-court success hands down. I know they have been successful prior to Shaka but truthfully, if he left the day after VCU was accepted into the Big East, would you think differently about them?? Brad Stevens did exactly that but atleast Butler is an "institutional fit" that plays in a major hoops market in a historic arena. VCU is none of that. Taking a team because of their coach is stupid.

Here's VCU if you take away the Shaka Smart years:
Median: 73
Average: 82

Still better than SLU and Richmond, and basically on par with Dayton.

So you are saying they are pretty much Dayton w/o Shaka and they are not an institutional fit but you'd take them anyways?

[BillikensWin]

History is nice, but it's over. Father Biondi is gone at SLU.

[lolhoya]

So you are saying they are pretty much Dayton w/o Shaka and they are not an institutional fit but you'd take them anyways?

Yes.

We're comparing options. I already said I don't care about "institutional fit". My primary concern is on court success. A far second concern would be fan base, and VCU/Dayton are better options there too.

If VCU is Dayton without Shaka, then that's still better than SLU and Richmond. And you can't totally discount Shaka because as of now they still have him. I agree it's dumb to assume he'll stay forever, but even without him VCU is still better than SLU and Richmond.

[cm5yz6]

So you are saying they are pretty much Dayton w/o Shaka and they are not an institutional fit but you'd take them anyways?

Yes.

We're comparing options. I already said I don't care about "institutional fit". My primary concern is on court success. A far second concern would be fan base, and VCU/Dayton are better options there too.

If VCU is Dayton without Shaka, then that's still better than SLU and Richmond. And you can't totally discount Shaka because as of now they still have him. I agree it's dumb to assume he'll stay forever, but even without him VCU is still better than SLU and Richmond.

I guess its a good thing your (and anyone else's on this board for that matter) opinion doesn't matter

[SCS]

Is Duke Duke without K? Is Syracuse Syracuse without Boeheim? Would you not take either of those schools?

[BillikensWin]

Apologies to Bill Marsh for earlier.

I've been defending SLU for so long that I tend to go overboard.