How many more wins each team needs to get in

[stever20]

I guess with Stainbrook out until atleast Saturday, can X lose and still get in? They have two top 25 wins in Cincy and Creighton but will that be enough. They have the "injury" card with Stainbrook if they lose the first game since he would most likely be back in time for the tourney.

If Xavier can really convince the Committee that he is fine for the tournament, maybe, as then the three losses would have asterisks on them. I don't like the idea of hoping for that.

This is why I was really hoping for even a cameo appearance on Thursday, as it would lend a lot of weight to the idea that he'll be ready for the tournament.

committee can't just assume they would have won with him..

Also a small problem if they do get in, they will likely be playing on Tuesday/Wednesday and not Thursday/Friday(one request to the committee for this boards sanity, please do not put Xavier playing Dayton) They aren't going to get a 1st round bye almost certainly now if they get in at all...

[XUFan09]

I guess with Stainbrook out until atleast Saturday, can X lose and still get in? They have two top 25 wins in Cincy and Creighton but will that be enough. They have the "injury" card with Stainbrook if they lose the first game since he would most likely be back in time for the tourney.

If Xavier can really convince the Committee that he is fine for the tournament, maybe, as then the three losses would have asterisks on them. I don't like the idea of hoping for that.

This is why I was really hoping for even a cameo appearance on Thursday, as it would lend a lot of weight to the idea that he'll be ready for the tournament.

committee can't just assume they would have won with him..

Also a small problem if they do get in, they will likely be playing on Tuesday/Wednesday and not Thursday/Friday(one request to the committee for this boards sanity, please do not put Xavier playing Dayton) They aren't going to get a 1st round bye almost certainly now if they get in at all...

The Committee doesn't have to assume that Xavier would win those games in that scenario. It would just put greater weight on the pre-injury games, with less consideration for the losses after the injury (though not outright ignoring them). That would be much better for Xavier, because if the season ended just after the Creighton game, Xavier was a lock. Still, this only happens in a scenario where the Committee decided that Stainbrook will be 100% for the tournament. As I don't even think that will be true (though I think he'd play), I'm not counting on that.

If Xavier beats Marquette, they won't have to worry about the play-in game, but if they lose, yeah, that Tuesday/Wednesday setup isn't very appealing (though still better than not making).

[Edrick]

@CBSSports Latest Bracket: Xavier, Arkansas, Providence, Tennessee are IN.

Missouri, Minnesota, Georgetown, Cal are OUT.



http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[stever20]

they may have to still worry about the play in game- right now they are about the 4th-5th team in. Beating what would be a 17-15 Marquette team isn't going to be a profound win that's going to skyrocket them. It's more like just allowing them to keep pace.

[stever20]

@CBSSports Latest Bracket: Xavier, Arkansas, Providence, Tennessee are IN.

Missouri, Minnesota, Georgetown, Cal are OUT.



http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

This type of one is really dangerous right now. If Marquette and St John's win in the QF, along with Nova and Creighton, then Nova and Creighton win- ouch.

[XUFan09]

they may have to still worry about the play in game- right now they are about the 4th-5th team in. Beating what would be a 17-15 Marquette team isn't going to be a profound win that's going to skyrocket them. It's more like just allowing them to keep pace.

Bracket Matrix currently has Xavier as an 11 seed. A win over Marquette wouldn't be crazy good, but if you combine that with the assumption by the Committee that Stainbrook will at least get some playing time in the tournament (and they won without him), that should push Xavier out of the play-in game range.

[stever20]

they may have to still worry about the play in game- right now they are about the 4th-5th team in. Beating what would be a 17-15 Marquette team isn't going to be a profound win that's going to skyrocket them. It's more like just allowing them to keep pace.

Bracket Matrix currently has Xavier as an 11 seed. A win over Marquette wouldn't be crazy good, but if you combine that with the assumption by the Committee that Stainbrook will at least get some playing time in the tournament (and they won without him), that should push Xavier out of the play-in game range.

They have them in the PIG right now. 3rd team in. It's not a lock by any stretch they would avoid the PIG if they beat a mediocre 17-15 Marquette team. Especially if the teams around them don't fall apart.

[hoyahooligan]

Villanova and Creighton are obviously already in the tournament. After tonight's Georgetown win, here's how many more wins each team needs to get in according to RPI Forecast:

1 - Xavier
2 - Georgetown
2/3 - Providence
3 - St. John's
4 - Marquette

The rest would need to win the Big East tournament to get a bid. It's interesting that there are 5 teams that still have a shot to get a bid without winning the tourney next week.

After this afternoon's results, St. John's and Georgetown each needs to get to the BE tournament finals to get a bid.

G'Town needs to win it all. SJ needs 2 wins. G'Town and SJ are 2 teams headed in different directions. I feel like teams blowing out G'Town is becoming fairly normal. SJ really doesn't get blown out except for 1 game vs. Xavier early in the year when we were lost. You have a sputtering team like G'Town and a hot team like SJ on the bubble. G'Town only has 17 wins and is 2 games under .500 in conference. SJ has 20 wins and is 2 games above .500 in conference. Not sure their great key wins overcomes that bad record. This is why I think they have more work to do in the BET. Their best case scenario with wins is where SJ is right now at 20.

G'Town is much more spontaneous. One day they beat #7 MSU. Then they lose by 20+ to SJU. Then they beat #10 Creighton. Then they get crapped on vs. Nova. They are very inconsistent and the committee doesn't like that. SJ started 0-5 finished 10-3 including a win vs. #12 Creighton, a sweep of Marquette, a blowout of G'Town, a win over PC, a 3 pt loss to Nova at their house, etc. No doubt that will be looked at. Look at the team in the first 5 games compared to now and you wouldn't recognize them. Still can't believe PC won 2 games on inbounds errors. Ugh.

By the way, it's a joke that Minnesota is considered above PC and SJ right now. They are 7-10 in conference with 18 wins! Dayton is legit. Arkansas is legit but they just got waxed by a bad Alabama team. Nebraska is pretty legit. Tennessee doesn't even have a ranked win and they have a similar RPI and record to SJ.

I think ESPN is just being very anti-Big East. If SJ wins 2 games they are in.

Not even close to being true. Georgetown is way ahead of St. John's on the Bubble despite what lunardi thinks. Only thing St. John's has going for it is overall record. THe teams are not going in opposite directions.

Georgetown has a better RPI, Better SOS, better wins.

If the Hoyas win 2 games they're a lock. If both teams go 1-1 Georgetown has a far better chance of getting selected.

They have almost the exact same resume as last years villanova team. Great wins. Head scratching losses. The Committee has shown they care more about big wins than bad losses. Big wins get you in despite bad losses. St. John's has 1 top 50 win all year. Georgetown has 5 more than any other bubble team. If they get to 19 wins they'll get in.

[stever20]

Georgetown must win 2 to have a real shot. 18-14 just isn't good enough normally.

[LeMoyne00]

Unless Georgetown wins the conference tourney, I don't think they have a shot at an at-large bid... too many loses.