Bubble Watch

[RedStormHoops]

Stever do you honestly believe Florida has a better chance to make it than seton hall or St. John's? They are 12-11 ! I could see if they had a few top 10 wins you could make a case but 12-11 and only good win against Arkansas. Yikes.

[stever20]

Stever do you honestly believe Florida has a better chance to make it than seton hall or St. John's? They are 12-11 ! I could see if they had a few top 10 wins you could make a case but 12-11 and only good win against Arkansas. Yikes.

Here's the thing with Florida....
They have 4 home games left...
Ole Miss 67% RPI forecast
Vandy 72% RPI forecast
Tennessee 83% RPI forecast
Texas A&M 72% RPI forecast

4 road games left....
Texas A&M 49% RPI forecast
LSU 53% RPI forecast
Missouri 82% RPI forecast
Kentucky 4% RPI forecast

If they could get all 4 home games and the 2 that they are favored on the road, that gets them to 18-13. 41.5 RPI. Would get them to like 5th in conference. If they could get to the SF from there(beating say Auburn or Miss St)- they would be in. They would have added good wins over Ole Miss and A&M to go along with Arkansas.

now compare to St John's-right now 13-8 and needs to get 18-12 to have a chance
home games-
DePaul 83% RPI Forecast
Seton Hall 66% RPI forecast
Xavier 52% RPI forecast
Georgetown 54% RPI forecast
away games-
Xavier 28% RPI forecast
Georgetown 30% RPI forecast
Marquette 51% RPI forecast
Villanova 15% RPI forecast

Seton Hall is a lower home winning % chance than any Florida home game left.

or Seton Hall-right now 15-8, needs to get to 18-12 to have a chance
home games-
Georgetown 50% rpi forecast
Creighton 79% RPI forecast
Providence 58% rpi forecast
away games-
Providence 33% rpi forecast
Villanova 13% rpi forecast
St John's 34% rpi forecast
Georgetown 27% rpi forecast

Even with St John's and Seton Hall- 18-12 only gets them to 58.5 and 53.5 respectively. Not close to the 41.5 that Florida would be at 18-13. So St John's and Seton Hall have much tougher schedules than Florida going forward.

Now if I were a betting man, I'd say NONE of those 3 make the tourney.

[Bill Marsh]

Stever do you honestly believe Florida has a better chance to make it than seton hall or St. John's? They are 12-11 ! I could see if they had a few top 10 wins you could make a case but 12-11 and only good win against Arkansas. Yikes.

They really don't. Looking at their reminding schedule, road games at Kentucky, A&M, and LSU all figure to be losses. Even home games against good teams like Mississippi and A&M aren't sure things.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Ok now I understand...

If everything goes right for the bubble teams outside the BE then they're all in and everything will naturally go wrong for the borderline BE teams so they're all out. And the committee will only look at OOC SOS.

Got it. Thanks Stever.

[stever20]

look at the 3 teams though...

Florida is at least a 67% favorite in 5 games. 2 other games they have a 49 and 53% chance. They get 6 and they will be sitting pretty decent. 7 and it's a lock.
St John's is at least a 66% favorite in 2 games. 3 other games they are between 51-54% chance. The other 3 they are 30% or less chance. They need 5 wins.
Seton Hall is at least a 60% favorite in 1 game. 2 other games they are a 50 and 58% chance. The other 4 games they are 34% or less chance. They need 3 wins.

Just from a statistical perspective, Florida is in better shape. I mean, St John's would have to win all 5 of their favored games, with 3 being pretty much pick'em type games.. Seton Hall is a bit better- but they would have to win 2 games where they are only 50 and 58% chance of winning.

[XUFan09]

FWIW, Team Rankings has Florida with a 53% chance of making the tournament, while St. John's and Seton Hall have 31% and 26% chances, respectively. I'm assuming that they're taking the probability of future outcomes into consideration. What's interesting is the probability they gave for each team for 19 wins:

Florida - 77.0%
Seton Hall - 27.4%
St. John's - 4.6%

With 20 wins:

Florida - 94.8%
Seton Hall - 69.2%
St. John's - 35.1%

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna ... cketology/

[stever20]

FWIW, Team Rankings has Florida with a 53% chance of making the tournament, while St. John's and Seton Hall have 31% and 26% chances, respectively. I'm assuming that they're taking the probability of future outcomes into consideration. What's interesting is the probability they gave for each team for 19 wins:

Florida - 77.0%
Seton Hall - 27.4%
St. John's - 4.6%

With 20 wins:

Florida - 94.8%
Seton Hall - 69.2%
St. John's - 35.1%

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna ... cketology/

just looking at their site shows what I was saying about Xavier even. with 18 wins, they see them as only a 39.8% chance of making the tourney.. 19 wins doubles their odds up to 78.9%.

[stever20]

Just looking- Seton Hall dropped from a 26% chance of making the tourney down to a 13% chance.

19 wins though only dropped from 27.4 down to 23.3.
20 wins dropped from 69.2 down to 57.2.

Over in the AAC, Temple is now a 86% chance of making the tourney and Tulsa is a 78% chance of making the tourney as 4 teams from the AAC.

Odds of getting a bid gainers from yesterday-
1 Temple 15.3% increase
2 Xavier 11.4% increase
think it's even funny- Georgetown increased 5.3% yesterday

drops-
Seton Hall was 3rd- down from 25.6% down to 12.8%.

In the 1 week dept-
Providence up 13.5% from 81.5 up to 95%.
Seton Hall down 28.8% from 41.6 down to 12.8%

[RedStormHoops]

Joe Lunardi has moved Seton Hall out of the tournament.

St John's replaced them.

[Barley]

GW loses to 7-14 Duquesne.

VCU in OT at home against Lasalle. The Rams are a shadow of the team they were and could be in jeopardy if they continue to lose.