Summer Musings

[stever20]

One problem though is that it's 15 years with at least 1 elite 8 in the 26 seasons. 4 years where 2 teams made the elite 8. 15/26 is less than 60%.

I would also put more focus really on the last 10 years. That's when the NBA changed their rules requiring kids to go to college for a year. Since then, we've had 8 Catholic schools make the elite 8, with 2 final 4's. I think though it shows something very telling. In those 10 years, only Nova in 2006/09 made the elite 8 twice. If you want to add Butler there as well, fine. Gonzaga once. ND once. Dayton once. Marquette once. Xavier once. Georgetown once.

In those same 10 years, we've had 19 programs make the elite 8 more than once. Only Nova and Butler are non FBS football schools. Had 7 make it more than 3 times- Florida(6), UNC(5), Louisville(5), Kentucky(5), UConn(4), Kansas(4), and Mich St(4). Memphis, UCLA, Ohio St, Duke, and Arizona all made it 3 times. All 12 of those are ones that you've seen do kids that leave early for the NBA fairly regularly. What has changed is the concept of going to those schools for a year or two max, and then know going in they're going pro right after that. It's changed the entire equation of college basketball in a way that's not helped us at all.

Even amongst the programs that went one time- 18 of them- half of those play FBS football.

Also, amongst the 17 FBS football schools that have been to the elite 8 at least 2x- only UConn and Memphis are non P5 schools. Amongst the 9 FBS schools that have been once- all 9 are P5 schools. So 24/26 of the teams from the FBS who have made the elite 8 in the last 10 years are P5 schools.

[MUBoxer]

Very interesting. If you get bored you should expand to sweet 16s as that's still a very poor percentage in elite 8s. Also shows you that when it comes to small private schools Duke is seriously carrying the load with 11E8, 9Ff, 3RU, 5Championships during this 25yr time frame

I'm not sure what "poor" means, but 19 E8's is a lot better than 3 Final Fours in that same era.

My reason for playing with this is because it's been discouraging to watch teams with outstanding regular seasons flame out in the postseason. Think recent Georgetown teams. I began to question whether it was still possible for smaller private schools - with catholic schools being my interest - to even successfully build a nationally competitive program any more.

I included all Catholic schools rather than just the Big East because they all face similar challenges in recruiting and maintaining players in the program. As times have changed, they've all been affected by those changes in a similar way. So, looking at all of them gives me a better sense of whether or not it can be done by any of them.

The fact that 13 programs - 15 if you include Butler and Davidson - could build their program to that level encourages me to believe that the programs of the Big East can continue to do that. I didn't even include the public school Cinderellas who have had success in this era while overcoming some of the same obstacles that we do - i.e. Wichita State, VCU, George Mason, UMass, erc. When those schools are thrown into the mix, it means that on average, there is a place at the table annually for schools that are not from the power football conferences, which are the programs with the most resources.

A single elimination tournament with many teams of similar ability leads to a lot of close games. Luck plays a part in which teams advance and which ones go home. However, trends over time lead to the conclusion that something more than luck is going on when a trend persists over time either in a positive or a negative way.

19 E8's in 26 seasons is a 73% annual rate. 22 is an 85% rate. While it could be better, I can live with that. Teams that get that far are capable of winning in the regional finals. Unfortunately there's been a high failure rate in those games that would get a team to the Final Four. To me, that indicates a different problem than would be the case if these schools weren't even getting team as far a stone E8. There have been a lot of close calls I that period which could have gone the other way. Let's hope that some of them start breaking our way.

I was looking for something to get me in a more optimistic frame of mind. This did it for me. I understand that it might not work for some other people

Yes it's better but that still means only 10.5% of all the elite 8 teams in the past 26 seasons have been small private schools not named duke. Better than just under 5% of all the final four teams but still not a percentage that shows me we are truly even competitive enough to consistently make the E8. It's why Id like to compare it to a percentage of Cinderella teams and I'd also like to look at the sweet 16 percentage

[stever20]

a point on Kentucky/UConn Bill....

UConn has won 4 titles in the last 20 years...
Kentucky has won 3 titles in the last 20 years. plus been to the title game 2x, and final 4 2 more times.

What Kentucky has done though in stockpiling talent- 2 things-
1- they've taken more guys themselves...
2- they've created an arms race where programs like Duke and Kansas to be able to compete have to stock up talent themselves..

What's happened is the Lebron culture of creating super teams has changed the entire culture of college basketball. top guys want to go form super teams in college even now.

[Bill Marsh]

Stever & MUBoxer, you've both done a nice job of describing the challenge that lies before us. Thanks.

All of this amounts to looking in the rear view mirror to see what lies in front of us.Obviously it real doesn't tell us where we're going. Just where we've been.

Eastern basketball was on life support in 1979 when The Big East was formed. Hadn't won a NC in 25 years and didn't win won for 5 more years. But since 1984, 8 NCs have come out of The East - 7 of them from original Big East schools.

By looking backwards in 1979, the same arguments could have been made about the future of Eastern basketball and the chances of schools from the region to compete on a national level. The formation of The Big East revitalized the region and changed things. I'm hoping that will happen again with smaller private schools being the group that needs to be revitalized this time.

For all the success that some big football schools have had, it's still a small number of FBS schools that have gotten even to an E8 much less a Final Four. For example, for all of the enormous resources in their athletic department and for all of their efforts in the past 15-20 years, Texas has been to only 1 Final Four in school history. Alabama has never been to a Final Four. Penn State has been there once and that was 60 years ago. USC has never been to a Final Four. Same with Tennessee and Nebraska. Oklahoma and Notre Dame have each been there once in school history. BYU has never been there. The list goes on. Auburn, Miami, Georgia, Clemson, etc, etc, etc.

These are the golden boys of college football. All past national champions. FBS membership and even FBS big time success does not equate to success on the basketball court. Duke, UConn, Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, and Indiana are all the laughing stock of the college football world. But they are historically the gold standard of college basketball. They were before the recent riches of big time football came trickling in and they still are.

The fact is that schools that place a priority on a certain sport tend to achieve at a high level in that sport. When a sport plays second fiddle at a school, it tends not to succeed at the highest levels. Schools that have won NC's in both sports are a rarity. I once counted and I believe there are only 6. Off the top of my head, Florida, Syracuse, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, and ??? It's even more rare to have done it in the same era. Syracuse and Maryland won their NC's in the 1950's. No one would mistake them for national football powers today.

FBS guarantees nothing for college basketball programs because all of their resources are dedicated to the football arms race except at schools where the community values basketball.

Call me Pollyanna, but I think that it can still happen in the new Big East where basketball is a priority and where basketball players are the stars on campus. No one could have predicted the changes that would occur at UConn, Georgetown, Villanova, and the rest of The Big East schools back in 1979. I don't think we can predict now. Who knows? Maybe DePaul will be the power house of the future.

[stever20]

1 major difference though- and that's the NBA. That has totally changed the equation of where the top players go to college and has totally changed college basketball. That's something you totally fail to acknowledge.

Also the percentage of teams who have gone in the last 10 years from the P5 to at least the elite 8 is 24/65. That's 36.9%. That's not anywhere near as small as you would think. The ones who have made it 2x or more is 15/65. Even there is 23%.

Also, the money has become so good that basketball has grown. I mean look at what happened this year in the SEC. Alabama and Mississippi St getting high paid coaches, along with Tennessee. That should send a pretty good message to you. The money has only now gotten even more out of whack. We've not seen the impact of that yet.

Just look at the ESPN top 10 recruiting classes this year....
#3 LSU(that should get your attention)
#5 Cal
#6 Texas A&M
#20 Miss St
#28 Auburn
#31 South Carolina
#36 Arkansas
#40 Vandy

Add to that Kentucky and Florida and you have 10/14 teams in the SEC with top 40 recruiting classes.

[gtmoBlue]

Hi Bill,

What happened? The Big 6 and the NCAA killed off all the independents (who were dominating the Dance at the time) in the Mid to late 70's. The 1977 Marquette Warriors, led by Al Mcguire, were the last independent team to win an NCAA Title. The NCAA forced the independents to join conferences in order to remain eligible to "dance", thus cutting the access for the former independents - while as the tourney grew - more access granted to Big 6 also-ran (2nd-3rd place) teams. It was the beginning of the multi bid league-fest that so many of you love today. This filled the gap you were noticing.

This (My) take is foreign to you BE folks - as it is written from the little guys perspective (the other side of the equation).

(Once you are on Bluenotes, Please scroll down to the article.)
Excellence in its' 2nd Century. On the MVC Resurgence: No Guts, No Glory.
http://gtmos-bluenotes.blogspot.com/200 ... 2277712610.

As for unintended consequences / unexpected school thriving under new circumstances? Creighton will rise to dominance in
this new environment. "As for Creighton, they win - it doesn't matter who plays or who coaches... All Creighton does is Win." - former rival coach.

[Bill Marsh]

Hi Bill,

What happened? The Big 6 and the NCAA killed off all the independents (who were dominating the Dance at the time) in the Mid to late 70's. The 1977 Marquette Warriors, led by Al Mcguire, were the last independent team to win an NCAA Title. The NCAA forced the independents to join conferences in order to remain eligible to "dance", thus cutting the access for the former independents - while as the tourney grew - more access granted to Big 6 also-ran (2nd-3rd place) teams. It was the beginning of the multi bid league-fest that so many of you love today. This filled the gap you were noticing.

This (My) take is foreign to you BE folks - as it is written from the little guys perspective (the other side of the equation).

(Once you are on Bluenotes, Please scroll down to the article.)
Excellence in its' 2nd Century. On the MVC Resurgence: No Guts, No Glory.
http://gtmos-bluenotes.blogspot.com/200 ... 2277712610.

As for unintended consequences / unexpected school thriving under new circumstances? Creighton will rise to dominance in
this new environment. "As for Creighton, they win - it doesn't matter who plays or who coaches... All Creighton does is Win." - former rival coach.

Gtmo Blue, thanks for the article. I'm glad to learn more about the CBI. And good points about the changes in the '70's as well as the fact that the NCAA runs the tournament for its own economic benefit and that of the P5.

I focused on the last 26 years and asked, "What happened?" Since 1990 because even after the changes of the'70's, the Catholic schools remained competitive right through the '80's. Georgetown and Villanova both one NC's. Seton Hall, St. John's and Providence all went to the Final Four with SH coming within a whisker and a ref's swallowed whistle of winning a 3rd championship. Dayton, St. Joe's and BC all went to the Elite 8. Heck, even Navy made it to an Elite 8. And the Big East Catholic schools accomplished this as a basketball-only conference without the benefit of football schools giving them a P6 stature and exposure as would later occur in the '90's.

I'll have to give your proposition more thought. Maybe it just took time for the changes of the '70's to catch up and have an impact. I have to admit that I thought that the automatic bids that came with conference formation was a good thing for the former independents. I remember when Villanova was passed over for an NCAA bid in 1965 despite the fact that they were #8 in the country. That kind of thing seemed to be happening all the time in those days, leaving top ten teams for the NIT because the NCAA wouldn't take them. The automatic bids opened doors for a lot of those teams.

[Bill Marsh]

1 major difference though- and that's the NBA. That has totally changed the equation of where the top players go to college and has totally changed college basketball. That's something you totally fail to acknowledge.

Also the percentage of teams who have gone in the last 10 years from the P5 to at least the elite 8 is 24/65. That's 36.9%. That's not anywhere near as small as you would think. The ones who have made it 2x or more is 15/65. Even there is 23%.

Also, the money has become so good that basketball has grown. I mean look at what happened this year in the SEC. Alabama and Mississippi St getting high paid coaches, along with Tennessee. That should send a pretty good message to you. The money has only now gotten even more out of whack. We've not seen the impact of that yet.

Just look at the ESPN top 10 recruiting classes this year....
#3 LSU(that should get your attention)
#5 Cal
#6 Texas A&M
#20 Miss St
#28 Auburn
#31 South Carolina
#36 Arkansas
#40 Vandy

Add to that Kentucky and Florida and you have 10/14 teams in the SEC with top 40 recruiting classes.

Thanks for your analysis, Stever. I'll ponder your thoughts.

One thing on which we agree is that the infusion of money has made a big difference. As you point out, the SEC, which was once a football only conference is now big time basketball. Where once SEC basketball was only about Kentucky, since 1980 the following SEC schools have gone to the Final Four since 1980 in addition to Kentucky - LSU, Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, and Mississippi State.

Your focus on the past 10 years and the NBA is interesting, but the down turn for Catholic schools began well before that in 1990. And the last 10 years has seen a rise in Cinderella Final Four runs greater than we had seen than since the 1970's - George Mason, Butler, VCU, and Wichita State. If they could do it, why not the Catholic schools?

[stever20]

1 major difference though- and that's the NBA. That has totally changed the equation of where the top players go to college and has totally changed college basketball. That's something you totally fail to acknowledge.

Also the percentage of teams who have gone in the last 10 years from the P5 to at least the elite 8 is 24/65. That's 36.9%. That's not anywhere near as small as you would think. The ones who have made it 2x or more is 15/65. Even there is 23%.

Also, the money has become so good that basketball has grown. I mean look at what happened this year in the SEC. Alabama and Mississippi St getting high paid coaches, along with Tennessee. That should send a pretty good message to you. The money has only now gotten even more out of whack. We've not seen the impact of that yet.

Just look at the ESPN top 10 recruiting classes this year....
#3 LSU(that should get your attention)
#5 Cal
#6 Texas A&M
#20 Miss St
#28 Auburn
#31 South Carolina
#36 Arkansas
#40 Vandy

Add to that Kentucky and Florida and you have 10/14 teams in the SEC with top 40 recruiting classes.

Thanks for your analysis, Stever. I'll ponder your thoughts.

One thing on which we agree is that the infusion of money has made a big difference. As you point out, the SEC, which was once a football only conference is now big time basketball. Where once SEC basketball was only about Kentucky, since 1980 the following SEC schools have gone to the Final Four since 1980 in addition to Kentucky - LSU, Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, and Mississippi State.

Your focus on the past 10 years and the NBA is interesting, but the down turn for Catholic schools began well before that in 1990. And the last 10 years has seen a rise in Cinderella Final Four runs greater than we had seen than since the 1970's - George Mason, Butler, VCU, and Wichita State. If they could do it, why not the Catholic schools?

I would say though-
80's-16 teams make elite 8, 7 final 4's.
90's- had 8 teams make the elite 8
2000-2005 3 teams make elite 8, 1 make final 4.
2006-15 8 teams make elite 8, 2 make final 4

a few things-
90's and 06-15 are almost exactly the same... If anything, 06-15 better with 2 teams actually breaking thru to make the final 4.
The 80's performance was such an outlier. I really don't think we're ever going to be to that level ever again.

I think what we've seen last 10 years is frankly the normal.

[stever20]

I'd also say looking at the list of the 1980's elite 8 teams.... Not only SEC has gotten much better- yeah in 80's you had LSU with 4 and Kentucky with 3- but that was it except for 1 Georgia appearance. Compare that to now with Florida and Kentucky with 11 between the 2 of them. So SEC is better(and getting better)...

but the big one is the Pac 10. In the 80's- the Pac 10 had all of 3 elite 8 trips- 1 each by UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon St. Arizona and UCLA both went 3 times in the last 10 years So they've gotten much better than they were in the 80's.

Even Big 10. in the 80's they had 9- Indiana 3, Iowa 2, Illinois 2, Purdue 1, and Michigan 1. Michigan St and Ohio St have 7 between the two of them then add Michigan and Wisconsin, and they have at least 10 off the top of my mind.