stever20 wrote:Bill Marsh wrote:MUBasketball wrote:Figured it was a good time to start the weekly look at the conference tournament picture. I will try to post these weekly every Sunday.
Using RPI Forecast to project the Final rankings, here's another way to look at it. (I hope I have the tie breaker formula right.)
8. DePaul
9. Marquette > 1. Villanova
................. 4. Seton Hall
.................. 5. Xavier
.................. 3. Georgetown
.................. 6. Providence
7. St. John's >> 2. Butler
10. Creighton
Looking RPI forecast has Butler and Georgetown tied. Georgetown has a win over Butler already and a win also over Nova. So for Butler to be seeded ahead of Georgetown, they have to finish a game up on them.
A lot left to be decided in the 4-6 range where 3 way tie at 10-8. SH and PC haven't played at all yet, and a HUGE game left is PC vs X.
I fail to see the relevance of Georgetown's wins over Villanova and Butler in January in terms of tie breakers. Georgetown did what it was supposed to do and defended home court. Second time around they're expected to lose both of those games on the road. Ties won't be broken based on what's happened to date, they will be broken based on what's been accomplished at season' send.
So, sitting here on February 4 and projecting ahead, all we can talk about is what things might look like if the rest of the season plays out as expected.
As you pointed out earlier, last night's upset loss leaves Seton Hall projected at 9-9, not 10-8. You're also correct that a lot is left to be decided. I thought we were looking ahead to match ups just for fun, so I provided an alternate scenario to the OP's scenario based on projections. Just for fun. Other than having some fun with it, there really is no point in talking about tournament match ups right now because there's absolutely no way to know now exactly what they'll look like in a month. As you say, a lot's left to be decided.