Activity on the Bubble

[gosports1]

well i think we'll get 7 in post season, not to shabby

[stever20]

well i think we'll get 7 in post season, not to shabby

Yeah, I'd think so. Could even see Seton Hall get asked to that CIT I suppose.

[stever20]

so I bet Creighton fans back on December 8 never thought that Nebraska would be your 2nd best win, and have that be a good thing.

[HoosierPal]

i fooled around with some numbers this morning - before RPI Forecast had updated with yesterday's results and before any Sunday games were played today. I simply looked ahead to see what would happen if conference tournament games involving teams on the bubble played according to the calk. Of course I added in today's games with the favorites winning. If you were to try it yourself, you'll probably get slightly different numbers because you will be able to use an updated RPI Forecast, but just as an exercise, it's an interesting preview of what will be happening.

What happens is that a couple of teams fall off the bubble - Nebraska and Kansas State. If they lose, Xavier also falls off the bubble. Here' the RPI Forecast projected RPI ranking for teams on the bubble to fill in those 2/3 spots:

55.2 - Providence (assuming a win over St. John's)
56.3 - Missouri
56.4 - St. Mary's
59.7 - St. John's (assuming a win over Providence)
60.7 - Kansas State
60.9 - Georgetown (assuming a win over DePaul and a loss to Villanova)
61.0 - Nebraska
62.2 - Florida State
63.0 - Xavier (assuming a loss to Marquette)
73.8 - Cal

Not sure how your forecaster works, but I think the tires got blown off it. Nebraska was NCAA RPI 49 on Friday, and now beat Wisconsin. Even if they loose in the first round of the Big 10 tourney, no way then end up 61. They likely are in the NCAA. And Missouri is toast. After their blowout loss to TN, they are road kill.

[handdownmandown]

They're still not our second best win, I don't care what the RPI says, and anyhow our second best win was home vs. Nova, as our best win was in Philly.

They're a reflection of a mediocre team being polished up by a meh conference that in recent years has been top notch. Cal was much better than they were, and I'd bet on Arizona St and X on a neutral court as well. Heck I'd take most of the top 7 in our league vs. them. They're an at-home warrior with a totally overrated lead player. Bleah.

[stever20]

They're still not our second best win, I don't care what the RPI says, and anyhow our second best win was home vs. Nova, as our best win was in Philly.

They're a reflection of a mediocre team being polished up by a meh conference that in recent years has been top notch. Cal was much better than they were, and I'd bet on Arizona St and X on a neutral court as well. Heck I'd take most of the top 7 in our league vs. them. They're an at-home warrior with a totally overrated lead player. Bleah.

I meant OOC, sorry about that.

[HoosierPal]

They're still not our second best win, I don't care what the RPI says, and anyhow our second best win was home vs. Nova, as our best win was in Philly.

They're a reflection of a mediocre team being polished up by a meh conference that in recent years has been top notch. Cal was much better than they were, and I'd bet on Arizona St and X on a neutral court as well. Heck I'd take most of the top 7 in our league vs. them. They're an at-home warrior with a totally overrated lead player. Bleah.

Your not serious, are you?

[handdownmandown]

I'm not serious that they're overrated and that if they played the top seven on a neutral court they'd be lucky to go 2-5?

What part of that wouldn't I be serious about?

[billyjack]

A huge game today was Wichita State's MVC Tourney title game win.
This removes a second Valley school from grabbing an extra spot.

C-USA's tournament is this week. Outside chance Southern Miss could get an at-large if they lose in their tourney.

The Summit tourney is underway. I think North Dakota State gets a double-bye to the semi's. Not sure... doesn't seem like UNO is participating for some reason? Anyway, North Dakota State has a Top-50 RPI, so has a chance at an at-large if they lose in tourney.

I think the only other tourney that could be trouble for us with at-large bids would be the WCC. Assuming Gonzaga and BYU have clinched bids, that leaves St Mary's and San Francisco as potentially screwing things up. SMC plays Gonzaga and USF plays BYU in the semi's.

I think if say Northwestern or URI somehow win their tourneys, then bubble teams from their conferences will be significantly hurt enough where the result would ultimately be a wash.

[handdownmandown]

UNO is not completely integrated into D1 yet. It's their last season of the transitional period.