Tourney Watch 2/25/22

[stever20]

1 Gonzaga(a)-Sat @ St Mary's-lost 57-67
2 Arizona(a)-Sat @ Colorado-lost 63-79
3 Auburn(a)-Sat @ Tennessee-lost 62-67
4 Kansas(a)-Sat @ Baylor-lost 70-80
5 Baylor-Sat vs Kansas-won 80-70
6 Kentucky-Sat @ Arkansas-lost 73-75
7 Purdue(a)-Sat @ Mich St-lost 65-68
8 Duke(a)-Sat @ Syracuse-won 97-72
9 Texas Tech-Sat @ TCU-lost 66-69
10 Villanova-off until Tue.
11 Tennessee-Sat vs Auburn-won 67-62
12 Wisconsin-Sat @ Rutgers-won 66-61
13 Illinois-Sun @ Michigan-won 93-85
14 Providence-Sat vs Creighton-won 72-51
15 UCLA-Sat @ Oregon St-won 94-55
16 Texas-Sat @ West Virginia-won 82-81
17 Arkansas-Sat vs Kentucky-won 75-73
18 Ohio St-Sun @ Maryland-lost 60-75
19 Houston(a)-Sun vs SMU-won 75-61
20 UConn-Sun @ Georgetown-won 86-77
21 Alabama-Sat vs South Carolina-won 90-71
22 LSU-Sat vs Missouri-won 75-55
23 USC-Sat @ Oregon-won 70-69
24 Marquette-Sat vs Butler-won 64-56
25 Iowa St-Sat @ Kansas St-won 74-73
26 Iowa-Fri @ Nebraska-won 88-78
27 Mich St-Sat vs Purdue-won 68-65
28 Colorado St-Sat @ Utah St-won 66-55
29 Xavier-Sat vs Seton Hall-lost 66-82
30 Boise St(a)-Sat @ UNLV-won 86-76
31 St Mary's-Sat vs Gonzaga-won 67-57
32 Seton Hall-Sat @ Xavier-won 82-66
33 Creighton-Sat @ Providence-lost 51-72
34 Wyoming-Sat vs Nevada-won 74-61
35 TCU-Sat vs Texas Tech-won 69-66
36 Murray St(a)-Sat @ SE Missouri St-won 70-68
37 Notre Dame-Sat vs Ga Tech-won 90-56
38 Miami-Sat vs Va Tech-lost 70-71
39 San Francisco-Sat @ San Diego-won 78-62
40 Wake Forest-Sat vs Louisville-won 99-77
41 Davidson(a)-Sat vs Fordham-won 66-45
42 Loyola-Chi(a)-Sat @ Northern Iowa-lost 96-102
43 Rutgers-Sat vs Wisconsin-lost 61-66
44 Michigan-Sun vs Illinois-lost 85-93
-------last 4---------
45 North Carolina-Sat @ NC State-won 84-74
46 Indiana-Sun @ Minnesota-won 84-79
47 BYU-Sat vs Pepperdine-won 75-59
48 Oregon-Sat vs USC-lost 69-70
-------cut line--------
69 SMU-Sun @ Houston-lost 61-75
70 Memphis-Sun vs Wichita St-won 81-57
71 San Diego St-Fri vs San Jose St-won 77-52
72 Florida-Sat @ Georgia-won 84-72
73 St Bonaventure-Sat @ St Joe's-won 54-52
74 Dayton-Sat @ La Salle-lost 60-61
75 VCU-Sat @ UMass-won 77-62
76 Virginia-Sat vs Florida St-lost 63-64
77 Va Tech-Sat @ Miami-won 71-70
78 St Louis-Fri @ Richmond-lost 66-68
79 Kansas St-Sat vs Iowa St-lost 73-74
80 Belmont-Sat vs Tennessee St-won 87-67

Autos:
49 North Texas-Sat vs La Tech-won 56-49
50 Iona-Fri vs Canisius-won 72-65 Sun @ Rider-won 67-61
51 New Mexico St-Sat @ Chicago St-lost 59-61
52 South Dakota St-Sat @ Kansas City-won 86-75
53 Chattanooga-Sat vs Samford-won 70-57
54 Vermont-Sat vs UMass Lowell-won 62-61
55 Toledo-Sat vs Miami(OH)-won 88-73
56 Montana St-Sun @ Montana-lost 74-80
57 Texas St-Fri @ Troy-won 66-61
58 Princeton-Fri vs Harvard-won 74-67 Sun @ Harvard-won 74-73
59 Jacksonville St-Sat vs North Alabama-won 69-52
60 Long Beach St-Sat @ UC Irvine-lost 72-77
61 Longwood-Sat @ Campbell-won 60-55
62 UNC Wilmington-Sat @ Delaware-won 69-62
63 Colgate-Sat vs Navy-won 74-69
64 Cleveland St-Sat @ Oakland-lost 57-65
--------1st 4---------
65 Norfolk St-Sat vs South Carolina St-won 63-59
66 Texas Southern-Sat vs Jackson St-won 81-66
67 Bryant-Sat vs Wagner-won 78-70
68 New Orleans-Sat @ Northwestern St-lost 77-87

[Savannah Jay]

Exhibit A - why the NET is questionable (and i'm being nice)

Dayton is 9-3 in quad 4 and still has a net of 47. Played almost half their games in Q4, lost 3 of them (Lipscomb, UMASS-Lowell, and Austin Peay). Beating Kansas on a neutral court negates those bad L's? BTW, the next highest NET team with 3 Q4 losses is Bradley at 97.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Houston's NET is 4 and they've played 3 Q1 games and lost them all.

There are 5 teams with top 30 NETs that have played 4 or fewer Q1 games.

[stever20]

Exhibit A - why the NET is questionable (and i'm being nice)

Dayton is 9-3 in quad 4 and still has a net of 47. Played almost half their games in Q4, lost 3 of them (Lipscomb, UMASS-Lowell, and Austin Peay). Beating Kansas on a neutral court negates those bad L's? BTW, the next highest NET team with 3 Q4 losses is Bradley at 97.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Houston's NET is 4 and they've played 3 Q1 games and lost them all.

There are 5 teams with top 30 NETs that have played 4 or fewer Q1 games.

Their RPI is 61 so not that far off the NET.

They have a very weird profile, that's for sure. Think they have a shot especially if they can beat Davidson at home next Saturday. Could finish 23-8 going into the A10 tourney. Thought they were dead after SMU and Ole Miss beat them. And still don't think they're that good.

[kayako]

The committee will consider that Dayton's Q4 losses were 3 consecutive games very early in the season. Right or wrong, I think Dayton's play since then will outweigh those 3 brutalities, as long as they finish strong. VCU also has an obvious case of being a different team since their PG came back. Factoring in teams capable of winning their conference tourney, I think the A10 has a realistic shot at 3 bids.

[stever20]

so looking ahead for the A10- next Tuesday VCU and St Bonaventure play each other. Winner would be getting into pretty decent shape- though VCU has to travel to SLU for final game of the year which is pretty tricky and St Bonaventure has to play Richmond. Dayton has to finish @ Richmond and then Davidson. So some pretty tough games for all 3 of those teams next week. This weekend is just an avoid the landmine type of weekend for all of them.

[kayako]

I'd like to think that the makeup of the committee is a factor, and the A10 does have a seat at the table.

Conferences currently represented in the committee:

Southland
MVC - Bradley
MAC - Toledo
A10
SWAC
B12 - Iowa State
ACC - UNC
B10 - Minnesota
PAC12 - UCLA
SEC - Alabama
Sunbelt
Big East - Butler

So yeah, I think conferences represented has slight edge if push comes to shove, especially A10, Loyola (if they don't get auto), and UNC.

[stever20]

Tough to believe but the 1st conference ended their regular season play tonight in the Sun Belt.

16 days from now we have a bracket.

[XUFan09]

Exhibit A - why the NET is questionable (and i'm being nice)

Dayton is 9-3 in quad 4 and still has a net of 47. Played almost half their games in Q4, lost 3 of them (Lipscomb, UMASS-Lowell, and Austin Peay). Beating Kansas on a neutral court negates those bad L's? BTW, the next highest NET team with 3 Q4 losses is Bradley at 97.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Houston's NET is 4 and they've played 3 Q1 games and lost them all.

There are 5 teams with top 30 NETs that have played 4 or fewer Q1 games.

Going on the road and beating VCU by 30 probably had a bigger positive impact on Dayton's NET rating than beating KU by a point on a neutral floor. The KU win is likely their second best game, but there are some others that positively contributed to their NET like a 16-point win over Miami on a neutral court and blowout wins over multiple mediocre to bad-yet-not-terrible opponents.

BUT the big thing is that the NET rating doesn't help Dayton much, because it's used primarily to judge a team's opponents. So, the teams that have beat Dayton would appreciate that they have a good NET rating.

[stever20]

so I think today is probably close to a must win for Loyola playing at Northern Iowa if they want an at large bid. Don't see them getting in if they lose today and then again in the MVC tourney.

[stever20]

big win for Michigan St over Purdue. Makes this game for Marquette that much bigger.