The Next Five Years [ From 16 July 2018 ]

[gtmoBlue]

The next 5 years... Please, no expansion discussions on this thread. Dig up one of the many expansion threads if you must, but no expansion issues or discussion here. No UConn speculation here either, this strictly for current configuration forecasting only.

Can G'twn, Marquette, & St John's find the means to build a resurgence? Many BE fans want these 3 to aid in increasing the conferences standing. What measurable and tangible benefits, if any, could be expected If one or more resurge? Who falls, if and when they should rise?

Who will be the next DePaul hire? Will it matter?

Can the conference continue to be top 5 without change? What effects, if any, will the resurgence of any/all Gtwn, Marq, StJ have on the conference's status? How can we best take advantage of our strengths?

What will the next TV contract look like (without expansion...no expansion discussion on this thread)?

Will the conference build out the BEDN into an all out sports platform for BE and other conferences programming? The BEDN, if done correctly, will be our greatest revenue stream.

Is Providence the next power team, assendent to the BE throne? A good team, they keep getting better, with 5 straight NCAAs. Does Cooley have what it takes to take them to the top/make them great?

Butler and Creighton...both keep surprising. What's next for these 2 in recruiting and in the BE hierarchy? Butler is in a great recruiting hotbed...can they win the BE?
Creighton is the outlier...can they become "another Syracuse" as was suggested years back (without the cheating, of course)?

Nova? Continue to reign or fall back to the pack?

X? Good but not great...can continuity in coaches continue to keep them in the top tier? Will they continue to thrive?

Seton Hall? Willard...can he get the job done? Will they remain a midtier team? Can they improve their recruiting and their lot?

Who are our top 4 teams in (5 years) 2023? What is the pecking order of all teams in 2023?


Please chime in.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Nice thread, Gtmo. Many different topics to discuss, but here's my take:

In five years, I do not think either Mullin, Ewing, Wojo, Willard or Leitao are at their respective schools. I can see Cooley, Wright, McDermott, Steele and Jordan still on-board, though. I never thought of Mullin as a long-term coach at St. Johns, especially with the length it has take to get back towards a consistent tournament team. If St. Johns misses the tournament again this year, I can see him quietly bowing out and returning to the NBA as a scout, executive, etc. With Ewing, I think, inevitably, he returns to the NBA as a head coach - especially if/when Georgetown gets back to its tournament ways. He and Mullin were never college coaches, assistants, etc. They were NBA guys. Once both right their respective ships, and/or experience some success, I think they hand the keys over. With regards to Wojo, he is destined to either become the heir-apparent to Coach K, or take over for a respected ACC program. As much thought goes into him becoming Duke's head coach, I am actually worried after this year (especially if we are as good as advertised) that he may be Maryland's next head coach. Turgeon has a few problems brewing over there, and Wojo is from Baltimore. Willard has been close to both being dismissed from Seton Hall and leaving Seton Hall over the years, and he has been there since 2010. I can see him moving on too. And Leitao... enough said.

The next DePaul head men's basketball coach will not matter until a shakeup at the university and administration level occur. However, if new leadership is brought on-board, especially one that knows college basketball, they can quickly turn it around. Several small changes have occurred within the AD there, so perhaps that day is sooner rather than later. Hopefully, Loyola's run starts an internal fire there. The reality is that DePaul has inspired zero confidence and faith over the years, and - quite frankly - since coming into the conference. They are out of excuses as to why they have yet to make a tournament appearance in the Big East.

The biggest opportunity for future growth is from Georgetown (D.C.), St. John's (NYC) and DePaul (Chicago). If any of those teams can rise to the top of the conference, it adds considerably to our exposure. Parity, at the end of the day, is good for the league - as long as we our anchored by our newly-Christened blue-blood, Villanova. Every power conference needs one; Nova is our's.

I do think we will get a bump in our next TV deal - but mostly because I think Fox will get competition from our content. I have said, and continue to believe, that ESPN would absolutely make a push to regain our rights. The Big East was ESPN's baby. I think after it helped sell off its pieces, and - in-turn - attempt to devalue the league, there is a little bit of seller's remorse. For all the attempts to sell the narrative that the "Big East Died", that could not be further from the truth. In fact, it is now recognized as a top basketball conference. Getting their rights back gives them substantial opportunity: including Big East/ACC shootouts and extending the Gavitt Games to ensure all/most games are on ESPN. The fact that the Big East remains in big markets in the Midwest and East Coast will always provide viewership opportunity, and our on-court success provide the results. Finally, with the rise in viewership interest from both women's basketball and lacrosse, two sports we also do very well with, I think we have the content to sell and market as well.

Expansion aside, I do think extending the conference slate to 20-games is inevitable and natural. It provides more content to provide for networks. I'll leave it at that.

Other goals that the league should have: getting a scheduling alliance with the Big 12, extending the current deal with the B1G (Gavitt Games), and the pursuit of a preseason Old Big East shootout at Madison Square Garden involved the C5 (G'Town, Villanova, St. Johns, Seton Hall and Providence) and a rotation of former members (Syracuse, UConn, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Rutgers, Notre Dame or West Virginia). If wanted/needed, we can throw out DePaul/Marquette and Cincinnati/Louisville as well. Additionally, with all of the throwback uniforms craze in sports today, we should definitely have a throwback-themed day where all the Big East teams wear old uniforms, Fox uses old graphics/presentation and honor programs legends of old. Our history (both in and out of conference) is storied and prestigious. While a good portion of the audience was not alive during those times, it makes it all the more important to recognize and give attention to it.

Finally, I hope Val Ackermann is still our commissioner in five years, as she has done an unbelievable job positioning us as one of the top conferences in the country. However, if for whatever reason, she is no longer our commissioner, I would guess Vince Nicastro - former AD at Villanova and current Big East Deputy Commissioner and COO - to be her replacement.

[MUBoxer]

I don't claim to know if wojo will be here in five years but I'd bet my savings he won't be leaving for any ACC school not named duke.

[Edrick]

This post gave me an idea (thank you), that I think I’ll do today. I always say that teams tend to be just what they are in college basketball, because a certain inertia takes hold. So the best way to predict the next X years is just look back X years. Given Pomeroy has enough data to do just that for this time range, I’m going to see how much of a team’s performance in years 5-9 is explained by years 0-4.

Over / Under on .85 r-squared?

[Edrick]

The Under wins.

Removing the handful of schools that were not in the entire range of 2009 - 2018, 71% or college basketball's performance in 14 - 18 can be attributed to its performance 09 - 13.

I'd imagine this number gets several points higher using 10 years and 10 years, but I lack the data to do that quickly.

[MUBoxer]

The Under wins.

Removing the handful of schools that were not in the entire range of 2009 - 2018, 71% or college basketball's performance in 14 - 18 can be attributed to its performance 09 - 13.

I'd imagine this number gets several points higher using 10 years and 10 years, but I lack the data to do that quickly.

What a crappy reason to be part of the 29%

[kayako]

5 years ago, the C7 was in a disarray, and the 3 newcomers were in midmajor conferences. We still have work to do, but I am fairly optimistic that the Big East is just going to solidify its position as a perennial top 5 conference.

[Hall2012]

The Under wins.

Removing the handful of schools that were not in the entire range of 2009 - 2018, 71% or college basketball's performance in 14 - 18 can be attributed to its performance 09 - 13.

I'd imagine this number gets several points higher using 10 years and 10 years, but I lack the data to do that quickly.

performance based on what metric?

[stever20]

5 years ago, the C7 was in a disarray, and the 3 newcomers were in midmajor conferences. We still have work to do, but I am fairly optimistic that the Big East is just going to solidify its position as a perennial top 5 conference.

5 years ago was the C7 in disarray?

Marquette and Georgetown had just shared the regular season championship. Marquette would go on to the elite 8. Georgetown unfortuantely had to visit Dunk City.
Villanova had bounced back from a rough 2012 season to make the tourney in 2013- and were starting to bounce back- we all know how that bounce back would end.....
Providence had hired Cooley and had gone 9-9 in conference play in 2013, and made the QF of the NIT before losing to Baylor. I really think if the OBE had stuck together, Providence would have become a major factor there.
St John's had bounced back from their rough 2012 season(the Lavin cancer year) to make the NIT in 2013.

Seton Hall did struggle in 2013. But they were only a year removed from being a 1 seed in the NIT.

DePaul was well, DePaul.

I would say as a whole, the C7 was pretty strong. Not as strong at the top as in the late '00s where Georgetown and Nova both made final 4's- along with Marquette being a solid team- but 2013 had Providence and St John's both much stronger. So to me, I wouldn't say the C7 was in disarray in 2013. 3 NCAA teams(2 being top 3 seeds), and 2 NIT teams- out of 7 teams- isn't bad.

[MullinMayhem]

Some good story lines here. IMO, SJ has to prove it can finally live up to even some of the hype. Admittedly we tend to overhype with the talent and then once the season comes, it never seems to pan out. Hope that ends this year. PC has become a strong program in the NBE. Cooley is a great coach, but can he breakthrough to the next level? PC now regularly makes NCAA's but you can't get comfortable with that...they have the talent to win a game or two occasionally and they need to prove they can. Until then, they will not be seen as a true top tier Big East team with the likes of Nova and X. They have a good chance to breakthrough. By the way, Cooley has gotten the fanbase united and stronger than ever...I believe there's a new season ticket record under him. He's visible, he's funny, and he comes off as very approachable and likable. I wish Mullin would be more visible, because I feel like we don't have that connection with him.

Marquette is in a similar boat as us...they need to prove they can live up to their hype with all the talent. G'Town needs to take the next step.