AP top 10 teams vulnerable to upsets

[stever20]

ESPN did an insider article about the top 10 teams and how vulnerable they are to upsets... They've looked I believe at the past upsets and the components necessary for an upset.

Creighton they have as 3rd most likely. They say 2 major issues. 1 is lack of offensive rebounding. The other is the lack of forcing turnovers(#325 in the country right now).

Villanova is 4th most likely but is pretty far ahead of Creighton in this rating. Fouling is one issue- their opponents have 23% of the points from the line(national average is 22.3%). Also, guarding the 3 point line(which is huge when you are going up against a mid-major type team).

I can see folks saying they have them as 2 of the more likely ones. Have to remember right now, Creighton is 9 and Villanova is 8. So, kind of obvious that they would be viewed as more likely to get upset than one of the top 7 teams just from a numbers perspective.

[SJHooper]

When your only losses are vs. a Creighton team that was just in the top 10 and a top 5 Cuse team, unfortunately it means you are due. I hope it won't happen, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Nova exit early. They are not as consistent as their record indicates. They have had tons of sloppy games they caught breaks at the end to win. Their 2009 team was MUCH more dangerous than this team IMO. I just can't help but think Georgetown last year as a top 10 team in cruise control until FGCU. I know it sounds crazy, but I think the teams who have experienced upsets already are more dangerous than teams with no scars.

Creighton scares me when their 3 PT shots aren't falling. They need to shoot at least 45% or better each game to have a chance of going deep. I think they will have to rely a lot more on McDermott cutting to the hoop inside rather than chuck and pray, because they will be meeting other teams who can shoot as well.

[LTVU]

A St. John's fan would figure out a way to paint being able to win close games in a negative light, since the Johnnies close about as well as Byung hyun-Kim. Of Novas 14 Big East Wins, 8 were blowouts. The other 5 they were leading or within a basket or two the entire way and time and time again have made winning plays down the stretch. To me that is a positive as we head into the tourney, not a negative as hooper tries to paint it.

And also by "ton of sloppy games" do you mean one? The only one of the 6 non blowouts was st. Johns at home. The other 5 wins were in hostile environments against teams that had a ton to play for-- Butler when they were 12-2 in their first ever Big East game at Hinkle--- Gtown on the road, Marquette on the road in a game nova led the whole way and then overcame a horrendous call at the end of regulation, providence in an absolute war that providence had to win, and st johns on the road in a well played game where Nova made all the big plays in the last 6 mins to pull away.

[DudeAnon]

There are pros and cons of having lost multiple times. Look at Kansas, I think it bodes well for them having loss multiple times because they have played the hardest schedule. Nova didn't play the hardest schedule but has only lost to great teams so I don't think their situation is too different. They are at least getting to second weekend. And I wouldn't be shocked to see them in the 3rd weekend.

[SJHooper]

A St. John's fan would figure out a way to paint being able to win close games in a negative light, since the Johnnies close about as well as Byung hyun-Kim. Of Novas 14 Big East Wins, 8 were blowouts. The other 5 they were leading or within a basket or two the entire way and time and time again have made winning plays down the stretch. To me that is a positive as we head into the tourney, not a negative as hooper tries to paint it.

And also by "ton of sloppy games" do you mean one? The only one of the 6 non blowouts was st. Johns at home. The other 5 wins were in hostile environments against teams that had a ton to play for-- Butler when they were 12-2 in their first ever Big East game at Hinkle--- Gtown on the road, Marquette on the road in a game nova led the whole way and then overcame a horrendous call at the end of regulation, providence in an absolute war that providence had to win, and st johns on the road in a well played game where Nova made all the big plays in the last 6 mins to pull away.

Nova also got throttled twice by Creighton. They got 2 scares from SJ, a huge scare from PC, etc. What about miracle wins? Like the one over #5 Kansas with a chuck and pray 3 at the end? What about the banked 3 by Arc vs. SJ that ended up being the difference? Miracle shots and wins are not in the metrics, but the eye test tells you they are an overrated top 10 team. They are not a powerhouse, they are a good team that got a few key wins early and thrust into the rankings. Next year it really wouldn't shock me to see Nova in the 20's or maybe hang around 17th ish. I don't even think it's a guarantee they are ranked for most of next season. Those top 5 wins on miracle shots don't happen every year, and Creighton will not be ranked next year so there goes more opportunities to beat ranked teams to get ranked yourself. Unfortunately I think the Big East may only have 1 ranked team next year.

[LTVU]

The Kansas win was not a miracle win. Nova led the entire game. Arch made an open 3 in the corner. It was a good look off a well set up inbounds play. Had he missed they would have fouled Kansas with 10 seconds left and had another chance to either win or tie.

The St. John's win was also not a miracle win. If they had continued that game until now St. John's would still have 54 points. The Arch banked three helped, but you can't call a game Nova led the entire second half a miracle.

If anything the only miracle win of Nova's 26 was Iowa where we came back from a 15 point deficit in about 3 minutes. And even that game I don't think they were lucky. They simply out toughed Iowa down the stretch and hit big shot after big shot.

The team has 3 losses, 2 of which were embarrassing, it's not like they don't know how to lose, however they are not going to get tight in a close game, because they've played in plenty of them and gutted out them all.

[redmen9194]

ESPN really must have nothing to do. They are predicting who is most due for a loss now? That is ridiculous. Nova has lost three games. Two blow outs to Creighton who are obviously a bad match up for them and a loss to Syracuse. We are now in the last week of the regular season - I think it's clear that a team that enters the final week with three losses to two teams is very good and not over rated. Does that mean Nova wins the BET or the NCAA? Nope, because you have to play the games. The close wins mean two things, a.) they are able to close out games and b.) they are not playing push-overs. All season we have been worried about how many teams will we get in, how many teams will be ranked, etc., but at the end of the day it really doesn't matter. Over the years there will be years where we get a bunch in and years where we get not so much. There will be years were we have a bunch of top 25 teams and years we don't. But how great has this season been? We are in the last week of the season and there are six or seven teams still with much to play for. The games have been exciting and the fan bases have been engaged. That's what you want. We held our own in the non-conference as well. The season is just about over, sit back and enjoy the final stretch. Remember, a year ago they were saying we wouldn't get this thing off the ground for another two years and if we did it would be a disaster in the beginning. Seems to have worked out well. Go Big East!

[GumbyDamnit!]

A St. John's fan would figure out a way to paint being able to win close games in a negative light, since the Johnnies close about as well as Byung hyun-Kim. Of Novas 14 Big East Wins, 8 were blowouts. The other 5 they were leading or within a basket or two the entire way and time and time again have made winning plays down the stretch. To me that is a positive as we head into the tourney, not a negative as hooper tries to paint it.

And also by "ton of sloppy games" do you mean one? The only one of the 6 non blowouts was st. Johns at home. The other 5 wins were in hostile environments against teams that had a ton to play for-- Butler when they were 12-2 in their first ever Big East game at Hinkle--- Gtown on the road, Marquette on the road in a game nova led the whole way and then overcame a horrendous call at the end of regulation, providence in an absolute war that providence had to win, and st johns on the road in a well played game where Nova made all the big plays in the last 6 mins to pull away.

Nova also got throttled twice by Creighton. They got 2 scares from SJ, a huge scare from PC, etc. What about miracle wins? Like the one over #5 Kansas with a chuck and pray 3 at the end? What about the banked 3 by Arc vs. SJ that ended up being the difference? Miracle shots and wins are not in the metrics, but the eye test tells you they are an overrated top 10 team. They are not a powerhouse, they are a good team that got a few key wins early and thrust into the rankings. Next year it really wouldn't shock me to see Nova in the 20's or maybe hang around 17th ish. I don't even think it's a guarantee they are ranked for most of next season. Those top 5 wins on miracle shots don't happen every year, and Creighton will not be ranked next year so there goes more opportunities to beat ranked teams to get ranked yourself. Unfortunately I think the Big East may only have 1 ranked team next year.

Surprise surprise, Lavinwood/Sjuhooper talking sh!t about Nova. I love when road wins or "scares" as you put it, vs quality BE teams are used as ammunition to talk poorly about a team. Miracle win vs Kansas? Did you even see that game? We were up the whole game. If anything KU was "lucky" (using your definition of a team that makes plays down the stretch) to get back in the game at the end. You're right though, Nova is not the 2nd coming of the '83 Houston team, or FL of '05. There is NO team in college hoops this year that is. But they are a top 10 team because they have beaten 26 of the 29 teams they played this year vs a very good schedule. And to disprove that Nova just luckily squeaks by teams here is how they fared vs several Top 100 teams:

@#34 - 30 pt win
#46 - 23 pt win
#58 - 30 pt win
#68 - 17 pt win
#84 - 21 pt win

Not to mention 5 other 16-26 pt wins vs conf foes outside of the top 100. You know those are the guys that you guys have a couple losses against. Nice try Troll.

[stever20]

ESPN really must have nothing to do. They are predicting who is most due for a loss now? That is ridiculous. Nova has lost three games. Two blow outs to Creighton who are obviously a bad match up for them and a loss to Syracuse. We are now in the last week of the regular season - I think it's clear that a team that enters the final week with three losses to two teams is very good and not over rated. Does that mean Nova wins the BET or the NCAA? Nope, because you have to play the games. The close wins mean two things, a.) they are able to close out games and b.) they are not playing push-overs. All season we have been worried about how many teams will we get in, how many teams will be ranked, etc., but at the end of the day it really doesn't matter. Over the years there will be years where we get a bunch in and years where we get not so much. There will be years were we have a bunch of top 25 teams and years we don't. But how great has this season been? We are in the last week of the season and there are six or seven teams still with much to play for. The games have been exciting and the fan bases have been engaged. That's what you want. We held our own in the non-conference as well. The season is just about over, sit back and enjoy the final stretch. Remember, a year ago they were saying we wouldn't get this thing off the ground for another two years and if we did it would be a disaster in the beginning. Seems to have worked out well. Go Big East!

No- it's for the NCAA tournament- what teams are most vulnerable for a upset in the tourney. They do both which higher teams are vulnerable as well as the possible giant killers....

[billyjack]

ESPN really must have nothing to do. They are predicting who is most due for a loss now? That is ridiculous. Nova has lost three games. Two blow outs to Creighton who are obviously a bad match up for them and a loss to Syracuse. We are now in the last week of the regular season - I think it's clear that a team that enters the final week with three losses to two teams is very good and not over rated. Does that mean Nova wins the BET or the NCAA? Nope, because you have to play the games. The close wins mean two things, a.) they are able to close out games and b.) they are not playing push-overs. All season we have been worried about how many teams will we get in, how many teams will be ranked, etc., but at the end of the day it really doesn't matter. Over the years there will be years where we get a bunch in and years where we get not so much. There will be years were we have a bunch of top 25 teams and years we don't. But how great has this season been? We are in the last week of the season and there are six or seven teams still with much to play for. The games have been exciting and the fan bases have been engaged. That's what you want. We held our own in the non-conference as well. The season is just about over, sit back and enjoy the final stretch. Remember, a year ago they were saying we wouldn't get this thing off the ground for another two years and if we did it would be a disaster in the beginning. Seems to have worked out well. Go Big East!

Great post.