Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Bill Marsh]

Look at this from a business point of view. It's a slam dunk.

I agree. A look from a business point of view necessarily entails a look at financial information – specifically, annual revenue and profit/loss.

Big East TV Contract: ($ 500 million) / (12 years) / (10 schools) = $ 4.17 million per-year, per-school

UConn's subsidizing of athletics jumps as other revenues sag – May 18, 2016

The per-year, per-school average of the television contracts for the P5 leagues runs from $14.6 million (SEC) to $20.7 million (Big Ten). The Big 12 has a per-year, per-school average of $20 million in television revenue. What the Huskies generate via television rights, less than $2 million per year, is a pittance in comparison.

The financial impact of championship basketball – April 6, 2016

Data that UConn submitted to the U.S. Department of Education shows that for the 2014-2015 academic year, UConn's men's basketball team, which has won the national title four times since 1999, cost UConn $8.6 million while it earned $9.6 million in revenue – a profit of $ 1.3 million. Expenses for the school's lower-profile football team were $ 14.2 million, which overshadowed its $ 8.3 million in revenue – a loss of $ 5.9 million.

With a 2015 Revenue of $ 9.6 million and a 2015 Profit of $ 1.3 million, UConn did not make the Forbes list of College Basketball's 20 Most Valuable Teams. Please note that in the excerpt below, I have intentionally omitted Team Values, as Forbes’ valuation methodology has not been disclosed.

College Basketball's 20 Most Valuable Teams - 2016 - Forbes - March 14, 2016

)

Excellent post. Thanks for all the data. Great look at the business side.

Thinking like a university president, there's much more to this than just the business side of sports. Rising universities like UConn, aspiring to be academic powerhouses, see sports as just one piece of a much bigger profile. They are looking to develop their universities based on a model that defines the premier public universities around the country. That model is pretty much defined by the schools of the Big Ten and the PAC-12. These are universities which are committed to a pursuit of excellence. As part of their commitment to excellence is a comprehensive athletic department which is committed to the pursuit of excellence.

The real dollars that these university presidents are after is research dollars, which dwarf the revenue generated by athletics. So, any decisions that major research universities make with regard to their athletic programs will always be made within this context. As a result, rising aspirant universities will continue to fund athletic departments regardless of the fact that they are losing money because they are looking at a bigger picture.

We can look back 35 years to see this same dynamic operating. While there has been much handwringing over the harm to the long term prospects of the old Big East that was done by rejecting the application of Penn State, they were never going to be the savior that some fans hoped for. Their eye was always on the Big Ten and membership in the Big East was never going to change that. Universities want to associate with others like themselves, or what they'd like to be. That's what drives these realignment decisions even more than football as we have seen even with the new Big East.

[paulxu]

I remember this guy from a few years ago when the big shakeup and re-formation of the league occurred.

But I wonder if Conn sends a proposal to the Big12 that includes a football-only admission, and the rest of their programs to the BE, wouldn't they get clearance from the BE before doing that?

http://www.centralctcommunications.com/ ... ce2f4.html

[DudeAnon]

I remember this guy from a few years ago when the big shakeup and re-formation of the league occurred.

But I wonder if Conn sends a proposal to the Big12 that includes a football-only admission, and the rest of their programs to the BE, wouldn't they get clearance from the BE before doing that?

http://www.centralctcommunications.com/ ... ce2f4.html

Maybe that is where Andy Katz's tweet a month ago about the Big East being welcome to UCONN came from.

[Bill Marsh]

I remember this guy from a few years ago when the big shakeup and re-formation of the league occurred.

But I wonder if Conn sends a proposal to the Big12 that includes a football-only admission, and the rest of their programs to the BE, wouldn't they get clearance from the BE before doing that?

http://www.centralctcommunications.com/ ... ce2f4.html

It's hard to believe that UConn would have any value to the Big 12 as a football-only. And it's hard to believe that the people at UConn would think it would.

The other factor that this rumor ignores is the leverage that a Big 12 invite would give UConn with the ACC and B1G. With the B1G offer in hand, they could give the othe 2 leagues a "last chance" shot at them. UConn must be aware of the various options they have in negotiations with the P5 leagues. A football-only membership wouldn't give them any leverage.

[paulxu]

It's hard to believe that UConn would have any value to the Big 12 as a football-only. And it's hard to believe that the people at UConn would think it would.

The other factor that this rumor ignores is the leverage that a Big 12 invite would give UConn with the ACC and B1G. With the B1G offer in hand, they could give the othe 2 leagues a "last chance" shot at them. UConn must be aware of the various options they have in negotiations with the P5 leagues. A football-only membership wouldn't give them any leverage.

Perhaps the value would be the East Coast TV market without having to saddle all their other sports with travel requirements to Connecticut.

The leverage idea makes sense, but I'm more interested in whether the BE would have Ok'd their potential admission as an 11th team in advance, so their Big 12 pitch would have validity.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

A10's deal signed in 2012 with espn, nbc and cbs for 40 million over 8 yrs. or about 350k per team.

In the Atlantic 10, the TV rights money is not distributed equally among conference member schools. A10 teams that get more games on network TV get proportionally more money from the deal. Xavier and Dayton insisted on this arrangement, while schools such as Fordham, Duquesne, and LaSalle favored equal sharing of the Atlantic 10's TV rights money.

Atlantic 10 signs new media rights agreement with ESPN, CBS Sports, NBC Sports - October 2, 2012

The financial details of the deal have not been disclosed. Also yet to be released is how the money will be divvied up among conference members.

EVERY 2015-16 UD MEN’S BASKETBALL GAME TO BE TELEVISED – October 6, 2016

For the first time in school history, every University of Dayton men's basketball regular season game will be televised during the 2015-16 campaign.

The Flyers will play a school-record 21 contests on national television in 2015-16, matching last year's total. Dayton will play eight games on the ESPN family of networks, eight on CBS Sports Network, three on NBC Sports Network, and two on the American Sports Network.

A total of at least seven games will air on Time Warner Cable SportsChannel in Ohio and one on FOX Sports Ohio.

Dayton’s 21 games on national television in 2015-16 were included in the Atlantic 10’s TV rights contract. Another 10 televised Flyers’ games were not. The fact that regional cable TV companies are willing to pay UD for TV rights to the Flyers’ games against their least-desirable opponents speaks volumes. The University of Dayton does not disclose their total TV rights revenue, but it is easily in the low seven-figures per year range.

Dayton Moves up to Sixth Among Top College Basketball TV Markets – March 9, 2016


New Atlantic 10 Television Contract Shows Big East Basketball Schools Aren't Going Anywhere – October 3, 2012

Sources close to the deal say that the Atlantic 10 conference will earn $40 million over the eight years, or split $5 million a season.

$5 million per year, split between 14 teams means each school will get a little more than $350,000 per year from the television contract.

By comparison, NBC Sports is reportedly prepared to offer the Big East basketball members as much as $4 million per year as part of a larger deal to get the rights to both football and basketball. Are schools like Georgetown, Marquette, and St. John's bigger and more valuable basketball properties than St. Louis, Butler and others in the A-10? Sure.Nevertheless, there's no conceivable collection of basketball schools, without football also being a part of the equation, that would be able to command a number that large. Basketball just doesn't earn the money that football does, no matter how you arrange the conference.

Even the ACC television deal, which pays each school an average of $17 million per year, is divided 80% for football and 20% for basketball, meaning that a basketball only contract that featured two of the sports' most valuable brands (Duke and North Carolina) would hypothetically only earn about $3.5 million per team per year for its television rights.

Big East TV Rights Contract: ($ 500 million) / (12 years) / (10 schools) = $ 4.17 million per year per school

DePaul and St. John’s are being paid nearly $ 700,000 per year more for their TV rights than Duke and North Carolina. That’s a good deal for the Big East.

[Bill Marsh]

It's hard to believe that UConn would have any value to the Big 12 as a football-only. And it's hard to believe that the people at UConn would think it would.

The other factor that this rumor ignores is the leverage that a Big 12 invite would give UConn with the ACC and B1G. With the B1G offer in hand, they could give the othe 2 leagues a "last chance" shot at them. UConn must be aware of the various options they have in negotiations with the P5 leagues. A football-only membership wouldn't give them any leverage.

Perhaps the value would be the East Coast TV market without having to saddle all their other sports with travel requirements to Connecticut.

The leverage idea makes sense, but I'm more interested in whether the BE would have Ok'd their potential admission as an 11th team in advance, so their Big 12 pitch would have validity.

Is it really a hardship for all their other sports to take one road trip per year to CT? It seems to me that the hardship is UConn's. If they're willing to take that on for virtually every road game, then I would think there's no problem.

"Potential" admission is the key. As long as the papers haven't been signed, UConn can shop itself around at the last minute.

The East Coast TV market has value for a football-only if the East Coast football team is good, which it isn't, or of the league has its own network like the B1G, which I don't think the B12 does.

"Potential" admission is the key. As long as the papers haven't been signed, UConn is free to quietly shop itself around at the 11th hour.

[Gopher+RamFan]

MuddyWaters,

What is Dayton's media rights deal?

Thanks.

Deal signed in 2012 with espn, Nbc and Cbs for 40 million over 8 yrs. or about 350k per team.

I know the A10's media deal. I meant Dayton's individual rights. Georgetown has a deal that fluctuate based on performance, $1.5-2.5/yr and VCU has a deal for $2 million a year. Georgetown's has resulted in a few sponsorships, and VCU now has a flagship radio station.

I'm a VCU grad taking several classes at Georgetown's downtown campus, so I'm current on those two programs. I'm sure Dayton has a media rights deal, it's just never public. Usually if a school has a great deal (with tangible results like the above) it's heavily publicized. Richmond has one too, but it hasn't been public either, and I never saw any good sponsorships while living down there.

Daytons "value" to the conference, as far as TV rights (which may drive FBS expansion, but the Big East might think differently) is inconclusive. Their CBB viewership numbers are high, but they're next door to Cincy. They already watch CBB games on ESPN and FS1 (or at least that market does) - so adding them to an existing market, will not so much to the viewership on Fox Sports.

However, they are private and relatively good at basketball. I have seen none of the "but what if Coach Miller leaves" arguments I saw with VCU and Shaka on here. They would bring a large fanbase to MSG.

If I were the Big East and forced to expand (no problem staying at 10) - id probably take Dayton and VCU (if UConn doesn't happen). Cripples the A10, adds viewers to FS1 and fans to MSG. X/Dayton rivalry "Jimmy Carter!" (Am I doing that right?) and gives the Big East a public team with a large following for all the private schools to interact with and despise.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Excellent post. Thanks for all the data. Great look at the business side.

You’re quite welcome. Here’s some more data:

UConn's athletic budget much larger than other Big 12 expansion hopefuls – The Oklahoman – August 22, 2016

Among the schools outside the Power-5 conferences (and Notre Dame), Connecticut has far and away the largest athletic budget. According to USA Today’s annual research, UConn’s 2014-15 athletic budget was $72 million. The next highest total on the list was Cincinnati’s, $52 million.

Brigham Young is not on the list but BYU’s reported athletic budget is $57 million per year. UConn, with football attendance about half of BYU’s, spends more than do the Cougars. That’s impressive. UConn’s commitment to big-time athletics is unassailable.

Here are the USA Today figures of the top 20 non-Power-5 schools, with athletic budget and school subsidy. The subsidy gives you an idea how much revenue the departments generate (by subtracting) but also give you an idea how much the school is committed to athletic success.

1. Connecticut $72 million ($28M subsidy)
2. Cincinnati $52 million ($23M subsidy)
3. Central Florida $51 million ($24M subsidy)
4. Air Force $50 million ($34M subsidy)
5. San Diego State $49 million ($23M subsidy)
6. East Carolina $48 million ($18M subsidy)
7. South Florida $45 million ($21M subsidy)
8. Nevada-Las Vegas $45 million ($19M subsidy)
9. James Madison $44 million ($35M subsidy)
10. Houston $44 million ($25M subsidy)
11. Old Dominion $43 million ($28M subsidy)
12. Boise State $43 million ($12M subsidy)
13. Memphis $43 million ($18M subsidy)
14. Hawaii $43 million ($17M subsidy)
15. New Mexico $42 million ($11M subsidy)
16. Army $41 million ($12M subsidy)
17. Fresno State $39 million ($14M subsidy)
18. Colorado State $38 million ($20M subsidy)
19. Massachusetts $36 million ($28M subsidy)
20. Wyoming $35 million ($15M subsidy)

Also on the list, and mentioned as requesting audiences with the Big 12, are Arkansas State ($29 million budget; $14 million subsidy) and Northern Illinois ($27 million budget, $17 million subsidy). Totals for BYU, Tulane, Temple and SMU were not listed.

UConn Picked Fourth In East Division In AAC Football Poll – August 2, 2016

Houston is the overwhelming pick to repeat as American Athletic Conference champions. UConn was ranked fourth in the six-team East Division. When all of the teams in the 12-team conference are ranked by the number of points they received in the poll, UConn comes in eighth.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The real dollars that these university presidents are after is research dollars, which dwarf the revenue generated by athletics.

You’re absolutely correct. In 2014-15, Flyers basketball generated $12.9M in revenue, while the University of Dayton generated more than $98M in sponsored research revenue. The University of Dayton broke the $1 billion mark in sponsored research at the end of 2003.

Universities want to associate with others like themselves, or what they'd like to be. That's what drives these realignment decisions even more than football as we have seen even with the new Big East.

You’re absolutely correct again.

Butler, Creighton, Xavier join new Big East – Fox Sports/Associated Press – March 18, 2013

Providence, Georgetown, St. John's, Villanova, Marquette, Seton Hall and DePaul broke away from the old conference in search of stability, which was badly lacking as the football members kept leaving for other leagues. They feel they've found kindred spirits in Butler, Creighton and Xavier, all private schools with fewer than 8,000 students.

Enrolment

32,303 - Virginia Commonwealth University (Public University)
31,119 - University of Connecticut (Public University)

23,799 - DePaul University
20,448 - St. John's University
17,858 - Georgetown University
16,500 - Saint Louis University
11,852 - BE Average
11,745 - Marquette University
10,920 - University of Dayton
10,735 - Villanova University

9,627 - Seton Hall University
8,236 - Creighton University
6,538 - Xavier University
4,848 - Butler University
4,687 - Providence College
4,249 - University of Richmond

VCU's enrolment is approximately the same as the combined enrolments of Seton Hall, Creighton, Xavier, Butler, and Providence.

[gtmoBlue]

Geez FHF...You are a wealth of info...

What position does Duke, ND, Wake Forest, Vandy, Gonzaga, and St Bonnie's hold on these lists?
Just askin' since this is ALL Hypothetical.

Thanks,
gtmo