Brunson vs Dunn - who ya got?

[yaboynyp]

Not sure this is a serious question but if it is.... Dunn by a mile....

No idea how people think Brunson has a higher ceiling than Dunn as well . I know he's younger but Dunn is bigger stronger and has better physical attributes. The only thing Brunson does better than Dunn is shoot and he isn't in the same stratosphere athletically. Brunson is nice but Dunn is elite

I would disagree with your bolded statement. I saw Brunson play at a holiday tournament 90 minutes south of Chicago his senior season and the dude clearly has NBA level quickness and athleticism. Just in terms of his first step and ability to create space with his body, he reminds me physically of a Monta Ellis, maybe not as explosive but obviously a NBA level athlete in person.

Dunn is long and quick too, but not nearly as thick as Brunson so that hinders his ability to drive. Also I would say Brunson has more explosive ability. At this juncture I would argue Dunn is more offensively gifted than Brunson and is likely the better 15-16 college player, but Brunson has a great base to grow off of, and could end up the better of the two at the end of the day

Dunn has no issues in his ability to drive, kid is elite in that area in my view. Plus there's a difference doing it against HM kids on a nightly basis vs HS kids... I haven't seen that ability out of Brunson, his stroke is much better, but I give it to Dunn in every other area. He put up some ridiculous numbers last year, kid should be playing in the league right now

[hortle]

I watched Dunn last year...his first step isn't that great (it also doesn't help that he is quite thin). He gets a point guard on his hip because of his comparatively longer limbs in order to initiate drive. Dunn is great overall, he's got great touch and feel for the game and he is a good athlete. But, imo, he looks more like an open court athlete, he needs a little time to get to his top gear, compared to a Westbrook or Wall who can get there a lot quicker. Brunson I think brings almost as much to the table physically as Dunn, but the edge goes to Dunn due to the height advantage. The last time I saw Brunson, the dude looked shredded compared to high schoolers. He's just a specimen and to me it looked like he had a great driving ability to the rim. Maybe he's not as athletic as I remember

[ChelseaFriar]

Being a 1st team all-American doesn't equate with draft position. Heck- player of the year doesn't equate.....
McDermott 11th
Kaminsky 9th

Being a great college player can be completely different than being an NBA prospect.

Ryan Gomes was a First Team AP All American at PC as a junior. Being one of the 5 best college players in the nation didn't guarantee him being a first round pick so he came back. He was a 2nd Round NBA draft pick after his senior season.

The reality is, the guys who are lottery locks leave after their freshman year. If they stayed, they would likely be lottery picks each year for the next 3 years if they stayed in college unless flaws in their development get exposed.

Good example is Andre Drummond. Averaged 10 and 7 as a freshman. Good year but not AA worthy. Entered draft and was selected 9th overall. Pretty sure he would have been a Top 10 pick after his sophomore, junior and senior years if he had elected to continue to play college ball. But he, like most lottery locks, left.

Sorry, but it's not a lock at all that Drummond would have been a top 10 pick after more years. The NBA draft is almost entirely on potential, not how good you are now. That's the thing that some folks here totally fail to realize.

And I give you James Michael McAdoo. If he had left after his frosh season, he was projected by many to be a lottery pick. He left after his junior season- and was undrafted. The fact is flaws in development do get exposed.
My point on Dunn is pretty simple. He might be able to upgrade his position a bit- but it would take not only him having an unreal season, but also a lot of the super frosh having just dreadful seasons for Dunn to move up into the top 5 of the draft. That's just the reality of 2016 NBA basketball.

That's because McAdoo was exposed as not being a high level NBA talent. Drummond is a high level NBA talent and would have been a lottery pick at any time after his four years in college. Same can be said for Anthony Davis. The NBA drafts guys in the lottery who they think can be NBA stars. Just so happens that most of these guys leave after one year of college, so they have to evaluate as best as they can. You agree with that fact, right? That most guys with NBA star talent leave after one year of college (or maybe 2 years)? If a lottery pick stays another year of college and his flaws are exposed, then he will not be a lottery pick. If a lottery pick stays another year of college and continues to play like a lottery pick and doesn't show big flaws, he will still be a lottery pick.

The NBA is forced to draft on potential because all of the top guys enter the draft when they are under 19. If they had a sure thing, 22 year old Anthony Davis coming out of Kentucky they certainly are not passing him up in the draft.

For the record, I'm not even debating this around Dunn. I do not think he will be a Top 5 pick in the draft.

[stever20]

Well for one, if there are 10 top freshmen every year where all are entering the draft and all are lottery picks, that changes the equation some. Also you have your international players coming over yearly. Then you have like last year Kaminsky. Eventually there's a numbers game. Also, there's a big difference between an Anthony Davis and a Kris Dunn. Davis was a lock top 2-3 pick. Had Dunn come out this past year- he might have been a lottery pick- but a low lottery pick- like in the 11-14 range. Pretty big difference there.

The thing is you would think that teams would draft based on more known quanities. Like this past year- a guy like Dunn would be valued higher than a guy like Mundily. But that's not how the NBA works. Dunn's not going to get more credit just because he dominates college basketball this year.

[billyjack]

The 2015 NBA draft class is considered to be much stronger that the upcoming 2016 class. Huge factor in KD returning.

[ChelseaFriar]

Well for one, if there are 10 top freshmen every year where all are entering the draft and all are lottery picks, that changes the equation some. Also you have your international players coming over yearly. Then you have like last year Kaminsky. Eventually there's a numbers game. Also, there's a big difference between an Anthony Davis and a Kris Dunn. Davis was a lock top 2-3 pick. Had Dunn come out this past year- he might have been a lottery pick- but a low lottery pick- like in the 11-14 range. Pretty big difference there.

The thing is you would think that teams would draft based on more known quanities. Like this past year- a guy like Dunn would be valued higher than a guy like Mundily. But that's not how the NBA works. Dunn's not going to get more credit just because he dominates college basketball this year.

Yeah, I agree with that. If guys stay around until their junior and/or senior years there is likely a reason (the NBA doesn't love their games). Not always, but usually.

Dunn is a bit of a unique circumstance due to his injuries only allowing him to play one full season to date. I think he will be a lottery pick but not Top 5. He has some areas to improve (such as taking care of the ball) and I hope he does.