NCAA Seeding

[WaitingPatiently]

One thing being overlooked with BE bubble teams and the Jays seeding is that the CU AD Bruce Rasmussen is on the committee this year. I know he can't partake in any of the discussion for the Jays or any BE team, but my observation from the past is those schools and conferences with a tie to someone on the committee get better treatment than they otherwise would. I think it's human nature. You work with the people on the committee for extended periods of time and develop a relationship with those people. The relationship has some bias in how you handle those teams impacted most by fellow members. I don't think it's a coincidence that in 2006 when the MVC had 4 teams dance that the MVC commish Doug Elgin was on the committee that year. They didn't take any 'underserving' teams, but I think 1-2-3 of those that got in would have been left out by most committees. I don't have any data on this, but that's been my general feeling when the brackets come out. Generally when there is a seed that is questioned or an at-large that is debatable....there is typically a link to a committee member.

[stever20]

The committee can't seed based on individual head to head matchups. It looks at an entire body of work. CU does not have the OOC resume that Nova does. If Nova ends up a 2 seed and Kansas a 1 should Nova be upset because they did beat them head to head? Nova's 3 losses are to Top 10 RPI teams. I'm am not saying that Nova is a better team than CU. but I am saying that all things being equal Nova has a better resume at this point.

Now if CU runs the table, wins the regular season BE title and the tourney (over Nova in the final) I think they will be a 2 seed at worst. Right now I would put Nova at a 2 and CU at a 3. I think having DM, the NPOY will certainly help their seeding as well.

Just was looking...

in RPI:
Creighton SOS 17
Villanova SOS 16

records vs RPI top 50:
Creighton 6-2
Villanova 4-3

vs RPI top 100
Creighton 11-4
Villanova 11-3

projected OOC SOS/overall SOS
Villanova 37/17
Creighton 52/19

there's not that huge of a difference between the two. Definitely it's close enough that head to head could easily make the difference. You start getting into 2nd best wins- Creighton/Villanova vs Villanova/Iowa. top 100 OOC wins- Creighton (Cal, Arizona St, Nebraska, and St Joe's) 4 Nova 4(Delaware, Kansas, Iowa, St Joe's). It's not a huge difference at all.

[GumbyDamnit!]

The committee can't seed based on individual head to head matchups. It looks at an entire body of work. CU does not have the OOC resume that Nova does. If Nova ends up a 2 seed and Kansas a 1 should Nova be upset because they did beat them head to head? Nova's 3 losses are to Top 10 RPI teams. I'm am not saying that Nova is a better team than CU. but I am saying that all things being equal Nova has a better resume at this point.

Now if CU runs the table, wins the regular season BE title and the tourney (over Nova in the final) I think they will be a 2 seed at worst. Right now I would put Nova at a 2 and CU at a 3. I think having DM, the NPOY will certainly help their seeding as well.

Just was looking...

in RPI:
Creighton SOS 17
Villanova SOS 16

records vs RPI top 50:
Creighton 6-2
Villanova 4-3

vs RPI top 100
Creighton 11-4
Villanova 11-3

projected OOC SOS/overall SOS
Villanova 37/17
Creighton 52/19

there's not that huge of a difference between the two. Definitely it's close enough that head to head could easily make the difference. You start getting into 2nd best wins- Creighton/Villanova vs Villanova/Iowa. top 100 OOC wins- Creighton (Cal, Arizona St, Nebraska, and St Joe's) 4 Nova 4(Delaware, Kansas, Iowa, St Joe's). It's not a huge difference at all.

I agree there really isn't a huge difference and upcoming games should bring greater clarity. But what might be interesting for the committee will be if Nova wins out and CU loses 1 remaining game, but then wins the BET. Nova proved that it was the better team over the regular season in an even round robin format and won the reg season title but CU has at least 2 head to head wins and the BET title. Then what??? Would think both would be 2 seeds at that point.

Also I do think that you are missing a crucial part of the equation... Losses.

Nova 3 vs. #6 (2x), #7
CU : 4 vs. #19, 28, 48, 57

2 of Novas 3 losses came away on the home court of two top 10 RPI teams. That's a tough ask for any team. Pick the best teams in the country and ask yourself what you would expect the outcome to be of games in those venues. I mean for God's sake It was the first time CU had a top 10 team on their home floor since the 70's. Think that fan base, which is already rabid, was up for that game? And oh yeah, only 40k at the Dome for the Syr-Nova game.

[FlyJays]

I agree there really isn't a huge difference and upcoming games should bring greater clarity. But what might be interesting for the committee will be if Nova wins out and CU loses 1 remaining game, but then wins the BET. Nova proved that it was the better team over the regular season in an even round robin format and won the reg season title but CU has at least 2 head to head wins and the BET title. Then what??? Would think both would be 2 seeds at that point.

Also I do think that you are missing a crucial part of the equation... Losses.

Nova 3 vs. #6 (2x), #7
CU : 4 vs. #19, 28, 48, 57

2 of Novas 3 losses came away on the home court of two top 10 RPI teams. That's a tough ask for any team. Pick the best teams in the country and ask yourself what you would expect the outcome to be of games in those venues. I mean for God's sake It was the first time CU had a top 10 team on their home floor since the 70's. Think that fan base, which is already rabid, was up for that game? And oh yeah, only 40k at the Dome for the Syr-Nova game.

That's an interesting point. Will the committee really value the quality of the losses when Nova's two best losses are to a team they are directly competing for a seed line with? Neither team has a "bad" loss, but you bring up a good point. That's like saying well, Team A, ranked number 1, only has two losses all season, both to Team B. Team B has three losses all year, to teams ranked 3,10, 14. Who gets the top seed in that scenario? Theoretically, the best measure of how good two teams are is head to head.

[XUFan09]

Does the Committee weight a win or loss less if it's the same team twice? Not saying the second iteration doesn't count at all, but maybe it's viewed as partially redundant.

[stever20]

The committee can't seed based on individual head to head matchups. It looks at an entire body of work. CU does not have the OOC resume that Nova does. If Nova ends up a 2 seed and Kansas a 1 should Nova be upset because they did beat them head to head? Nova's 3 losses are to Top 10 RPI teams. I'm am not saying that Nova is a better team than CU. but I am saying that all things being equal Nova has a better resume at this point.

Now if CU runs the table, wins the regular season BE title and the tourney (over Nova in the final) I think they will be a 2 seed at worst. Right now I would put Nova at a 2 and CU at a 3. I think having DM, the NPOY will certainly help their seeding as well.

Just was looking...

in RPI:
Creighton SOS 17
Villanova SOS 16

records vs RPI top 50:
Creighton 6-2
Villanova 4-3

vs RPI top 100
Creighton 11-4
Villanova 11-3

projected OOC SOS/overall SOS
Villanova 37/17
Creighton 52/19

there's not that huge of a difference between the two. Definitely it's close enough that head to head could easily make the difference. You start getting into 2nd best wins- Creighton/Villanova vs Villanova/Iowa. top 100 OOC wins- Creighton (Cal, Arizona St, Nebraska, and St Joe's) 4 Nova 4(Delaware, Kansas, Iowa, St Joe's). It's not a huge difference at all.

I agree there really isn't a huge difference and upcoming games should bring greater clarity. But what might be interesting for the committee will be if Nova wins out and CU loses 1 remaining game, but then wins the BET. Nova proved that it was the better team over the regular season in an even round robin format and won the reg season title but CU has at least 2 head to head wins and the BET title. Then what??? Would think both would be 2 seeds at that point.

Also I do think that you are missing a crucial part of the equation... Losses.

Nova 3 vs. #6 (2x), #7
CU : 4 vs. #19, 28, 48, 57

2 of Novas 3 losses came away on the home court of two top 10 RPI teams. That's a tough ask for any team. Pick the best teams in the country and ask yourself what you would expect the outcome to be of games in those venues. I mean for God's sake It was the first time CU had a top 10 team on their home floor since the 70's. Think that fan base, which is already rabid, was up for that game? And oh yeah, only 40k at the Dome for the Syr-Nova game.

but then you could look at it another way and I'd guess with SOS being as close as it will get that the Strength of Victory would be stronger for Creighton.

Either way, I think I'd look at those 2 teams as pretty darn close to equal. If you stuck a gun at me and made me pick one- I'd take Creighton just with the head to head differential. its close enough to make the difference.