ESPN 1/9 Bracketology

[stever20]

Joe Lunardi did a S-Curve looking at the teams thru Friday night's action....

Shows where we are-
Villanova 8
Creighton 20(liking that up to a 5 seed- though those 5/12 games are almost always scary!)
Xavier 27
Georgetown 40 (4th team w/o a bye)

No other team is in the first 14 teams out of the tournament.

Seems like we are looking more and more where 4 teams is the maximum now. You look at the other teams
Marquette- 10-7- would need to go likely at least 9-5 in last 14 to even get on the bubble
St John's- 9-6- 11-4 in last 15
Butler- 10-4
while none are impossible- they are very improbable. And- this was before St John's and Butler lost today.

Georgetown got the big win tonight at Butler. Our schedule getting set to get nasty though- @ Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette, @ Creighton, Villanova, and vs Michigan St. If we could even go 3-3 in those 6 games, I think we're ok. We'd be 14-7 and like either 6-3 or 5-4 in conference play. Great shape. If we went 1-5 though we could be looking at 12-9 and then 4-5 at worst in conference. Very precarious at that point.

Also on the point we had a few weeks ago about those final RPI's- the last at large team to make the tourney is #47. So, a team ranked #65 or 70 is 18-23 spots out of where they need to be- not really that close at all.

[BluejaysForThree]

Joe Lunardi did a S-Curve looking at the teams thru Friday night's action....

Shows where we are-
Villanova 8
Creighton 20(liking that up to a 5 seed- though those 5/12 games are almost always scary!)
Xavier 27
Georgetown 40 (4th team w/o a bye)

No other team is in the first 14 teams out of the tournament.

Seems like we are looking more and more where 4 teams is the maximum now. You look at the other teams
Marquette- 10-7- would need to go likely at least 9-5 in last 14 to even get on the bubble
St John's- 9-6- 11-4 in last 15
Butler- 10-4
while none are impossible- they are very improbable. And- this was before St John's and Butler lost today.

Georgetown got the big win tonight at Butler. Our schedule getting set to get nasty though- @ Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette, @ Creighton, Villanova, and vs Michigan St. If we could even go 3-3 in those 6 games, I think we're ok. We'd be 14-7 and like either 6-3 or 5-4 in conference play. Great shape. If we went 1-5 though we could be looking at 12-9 and then 4-5 at worst in conference. Very precarious at that point.

Also on the point we had a few weeks ago about those final RPI's- the last at large team to make the tourney is #47. So, a team ranked #65 or 70 is 18-23 spots out of where they need to be- not really that close at all.

At this point 3 teams is a near lock (Nova, CU, Xavier), with Georgetown still squarely on the bubble but if the field was selected today I would think they would most certainly be in the field of 68 (possibly in a play-in game). Outside of these four teams, the rest have a lot of work to do.

Marquette still has the potential in my mind to go on a run and get to 18-19 wins, which would put them on the bubble (and in with a couple wins at MSG in March). Same for Providence, they are certainly capable of going on a run - and if they do they could enter the conversation (especially if they can get to 18-19 wins and grab a few wins in the tourney). Butler is in a huge hole now being 0-4, but good thing is that its early and they could turn it around - but they appear to be an NIT team at best currently. St. John's is a team at 0-3 that is a disappointment with all their talent, but they could also go on a run and get into consideration, if they can get to 18-19 wins (but would most likely be an NIT team without a run on their home floor in the BE tourney).

Seton Hall and DePaul are pretty much the only two teams I would write off completely in the Big East (with a fifth straight loss, Butler would likely join these two in this group) for NCAA potential at this point.

[stever20]

The 3 teams(Nova, Creighton, Xavier)- according to Lunardi are at least 75% chance of getting in. He said there were 30 teams on the bubble right now- 16 in/14 out. He had like I said Georgetown as the 4th team with a 1st rd bye(and, this was prior to the game yesterday, which is a plus).

None of those teams would even sniff consideration with only 18-19 wins that you are mentioning. St John's at 19 wins would be only 9-9 in conference, with nothing OOC at all. That's NIT(and not even top NIT). Providence is same as St John's- 19 wins would be only 9-9 in conference play, with nothing OOC at all. Marquette to me needs 9 wins to have any chance going into the BET. The next 3 games for them is just make or break time. @ Butler, @ Georgetown, and Villanova.